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The inflation Targeting effect on the inflation series: A New Analysis Approach of evolutionary spectral analysis

Author

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  • Essahbi Essaadi

    () (GATE, University of Lyon, CNRS, ENS-LSH, Centre Léon Bérard, France)

  • Zied Ftiti

    () (GATE, University of Lyon, CNRS, ENS-LSH, Centre Léon Bérard, France)

Abstract

In this work, we study the inflation targeting effect on the inflation dynamics in the case of four industrial countries. Our objective is to check whether the inflation targeting policy (ITP) has a significant impact on the change of the inflation path. We use a non-parametric approach that doesn’t require any previous modelling. This is the evolutionary spectral analysis, as defined by Priestley (1965-1996). Then, we use a test that can detect many break points on the time series. This test is inspired by Subba Rao (1981). We use an extension to this test to allow the detection of multiple breaks. We base this on the extension of Ahamada and Boutahar (2002). This is the first time that this method is used in the case of inflation-targeting countries. We find that the inflation-targeting policy had a transition period for countries that had a high and volatile inflation experience before the inflation-targeting adoption. There is the case of New Zealand, Canada and Sweden. In these countries, we identify a structural change in the inflation series resulting to the inflation targeting intervention. However, In the case of other countries like United Kingdom that have a relatively lower inflation rate experience before the ITP adoption, we didn’t find a break point caused by this monetary policy intervention. In this case, the ITP had a role of ensuring this price stability. This result is explained by the fact that the inflation targeting is relevant when the initial inflation to be stabilized is near the target range (Artus, 2004). So, in this paper we justify the intuition of Artus (2004). The second result in our paper consists on the nature of inflation stabilization during the inflation-targeting period. The results proof a long-term stabilization on the inflation dynamic in the period of IT. These results traduce the success of this new framework to anchor the inflation expectation anchoring. So, we can conclude that this policy is preferment to ensure price stability in the case of industrials countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Essahbi Essaadi & Zied Ftiti, 2008. "The inflation Targeting effect on the inflation series: A New Analysis Approach of evolutionary spectral analysis," Working Papers 0832, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:0832
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Angela Redish, 2005. "Seventy Years of Central Banking: The Bank of Canada in International Context, 1935-2005," NBER Working Papers 11586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "The United Kingdom's Experience with Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 98/87, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    6. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-285, March.
    8. Bernard Hodgetts & Robin Clements, 1989. "Causes of the fall in inflation 1985-88," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 52, september.
    9. Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules," NBER Chapters,in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 93-172 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Artis, Michael J & Bladen-Hovell, Robin & Nachane, Dilip M, 1992. "Instability of the Velocity of Money: A New Approach Based on the Evolutionary Spectrum," CEPR Discussion Papers 735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès & Khaled Guesmi, 2014. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis V.S. Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2014-577, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. Ftiti, Zied & Hichri, Walid, 2014. "The price stability under inflation targeting regime: An analysis with a new intermediate approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 23-32.
    3. Anna Creti & Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi, 2013. "Oil price impact on financial markets: co-spectral analysis for exporting versus importing countries," Post-Print hal-01410673, HAL.
    4. Bouchouicha, Ranoua & Ftiti, Zied, 2012. "Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1820-1829.
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-421 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-099 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ftiti, Zied, 2010. "The macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting policy: An approach based on the evolutionary co-spectral analysis (extension for the case of a multivariate process)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 468-476, January.
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-064 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Anna Creti & Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi, 2014. "Oil price impact on financial markets:," Working Papers 2014-435, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    10. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    11. Can Tansel TUGCU & Serdar OZTURK, 2015. "Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 105-112, Winter.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-062 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-068 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-548 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sek Siok Kun, 2012. "Evaluating the performance of inflation targeting regime in three Asian economies," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 4(2), pages 82-98, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Targeting; Spectral Analysis and Structural Change;

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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