IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Does inflation targeting matter for output growth? Evidence from industrial and emerging economies

  • Mollick, André Varella
  • Cabral, René
  • Carneiro, Francisco G.

This paper examines the effects of inflation targeting (IT) on output growth over the "globalization years" of 1986-2004. Employing static panel data methods that control for traditional growth determinants, trade openness and financial globalization, the paper finds that the adoption of a fully fledged IT regime results in higher output income per capita for industrial and emerging economies. However, under dynamic model specifications, the estimated long-run output impact of inflation targeting for emerging market economies is found to be lower than in the case of static models. We argue that this might be due to the long lags until the full effects of greater credibility are felt in the real economy and the fact that emerging market economies adopted the regime much later than industrial economies.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893811000342
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 537-551

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:33:y:2011:i:4:p:537-551
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Ricci & Torsten Sloek, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," NBER Working Papers 9100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. William R. Hauk & Romain Wacziarg, 2004. "A Monte Carlo Study of Growth Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Research Papers 1951, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  4. Oscar Landerretche & Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 106, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Working Papers 06/189, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970–2004," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp126, IIIS.
  7. Albuquerque, Rui & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis, 2005. "World market integration through the lens of foreign direct investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 267-295, July.
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard, 2004. "Globalization, Returns to Accumulationa and the World Distribution of Output," NBER Working Papers 10565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2009. "Globalization and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 164-169, July.
  11. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Laura Alfaro & Selin Sayek & Areendam Chanda, 2002. "FDI and Economic Growth: The Role of Local Financial Markets," Macroeconomics 0212007, EconWPA.
  12. Jinill Kim & Dale Henderson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and Nominal Income Growth Targeting: When and Why Are They Suboptimal?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 59, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
  14. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  15. Nicoletta Batini & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experience of Emerging Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 12, pages 467-506 Central Bank of Chile.
  16. Scott Roger, 2009. "Inflation Targeting At 20: Achievements and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 09/236, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  18. Civcir, Irfan & Akçaglayan, AnIl, 2010. "Inflation targeting and the exchange rate: Does it matter in Turkey?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 339-354, May.
  19. Mark A. Wynne & Erasmus K. Kersting, 2007. "Openness and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  20. K. Sandar Kyaw & Ronald Macdonald, 2009. "Capital Flows and Growth in Developing Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 101-122.
  21. Hossein Jalilian & Colin Kirkpatrick, 2005. "Does Financial Development Contribute to Poverty Reduction?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 636-656.
  22. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
  23. Rangan Gupta, 2006. "Growth-Effects of Inflation Targeting: The Role of Financial Sector Development," Working Papers 200610, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  24. Joshua Aizenman, 2003. "On the Hidden Links Between Financial and Trade Opening," NBER Working Papers 9906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for monetary convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 817-837, October.
  26. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
  27. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," Macroeconomics 0502026, EconWPA.
  28. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 6.
  29. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
  30. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
  31. Martin D D Evans & Viktoria V Hnatkovska, 2007. "International Financial Integration and the Real Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 220-269, June.
  32. Son, Hyun H. & Kakwani, Nanak, 2008. "Global Estimates of Pro-Poor Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1048-1066, June.
  33. Andong Zhu & Robert Pollin, 2005. "Inflation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Non-linear Analysis," Working Papers wp109, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  34. Brito, Ricardo D. & Bystedt, Brianne, 2010. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-210, March.
  35. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  36. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Vesperoni, Esteban, 2006. "Financial globalization and debt maturity in emerging economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 183-207, February.
  37. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  38. Scott Roger & Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 05/163, International Monetary Fund.
  39. Sachsida, Adolfo & Carneiro, Francisco Galrao & Loureiro, Paulo R. A., 2003. "Does greater trade openness reduce inflation? Further evidence using panel data techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 315-319, December.
  40. Alfaro, Laura & Hammel, Eliza, 2007. "Capital flows and capital goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 128-150, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:33:y:2011:i:4:p:537-551. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.