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Inflation targeting and the exchange rate: Does it matter in Turkey?

  • Civcir, Irfan
  • Akçaglayan, AnIl

This paper investigates the monetary policy reaction functions of the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) over the periods 1987:01-2001:12 and 2002:01-2009:05. We specifically attempt to shed light on question to what extent exchange rate developments still continue to influence monetary policy, even under inflation targeting. This study seeks to investigate how the monetary policy responded to the exchange rate shocks before and after adoption of inflation targeting regime. How large the effect of exchange rate shocks is accounted for in forecast error variances decompositions for monetary policy as compared to other shocks? Using the VAR model, this study shows that there has been strong pass-through during whole period. Moreover, in the postcrisis period, exchange rate has been the main reaction variable for the CBRT.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 339-354

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:3:p:339-354
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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  1. Us, Vuslat, 2004. "Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: some prospects for the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1003-1013, December.
  2. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  3. Hakan Berument & Hakan Taş�i, 2004. "Monetary policy rules in practice: evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 33-38.
  4. Ege YAZGAN & Hakan YILMAZKUDAY, . "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from Turkey and Israel," Middle East and North Africa 330400057, EcoMod.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Nejla Adanur Aklan & Mehmet Nargelecekenler, 2008. "Taylor Rule in Practice: Evidence from Turkey," International Advances in Economic Research, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 156-166, May.
  7. David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
  8. Vuslat Us, 2007. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules in the Turkish Economy Under an Inflation-Targeting Framework," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(2), pages 82-101, April.
  9. Bofinger, Peter, 2001. "Monetary Policy: Goals, Institutions, Strategies, and Instruments," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199248568, March.
  10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  11. Hakan Berument & Kamuran Malatyali, 2000. "The implicit reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(7), pages 425-430.
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