IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cbk/journl/v5y2016i1p99-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Far Ahead Does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Look?

Author

Listed:
  • Umit Bulut

    (Ahi Evran University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics)

Abstract

In monetary economics literature, there is an agreement that monetary policy has a lagged effect on inflation. As a result of this agreement, monetary policy reaction functions that include expected inflation, instead of current or lagged inflation, are established. On the other hand, there is uncertainty about how much time monetary policy needs to affect inflation. The purpose of this paper is to estimate empirically how far ahead the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey looks. In other words, the paper examines whether the CBRT takes into consideration 12-month ahead inflation expectations or 24-month ahead inflation expectations while steering interest rates. According to the results of the paper, the CBRT considers 12-month ahead inflation expectations while steering interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Umit Bulut, 2016. "How Far Ahead Does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Look?," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 5(1), pages 99-111.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:5:y:2016:i:1:p:99-111
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cbcg.me/repec/cbk/journl/vol5no1-5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ege YAZGAN & Hakan YILMAZKUDAY, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from Turkey and Israel," Middle East and North Africa 330400057, EcoMod.
    2. Hakan Berument & Kamuran Malatyali, 2000. "The implicit reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(7), pages 425-430.
    3. Bofinger, Peter, 2001. "Monetary Policy: Goals, Institutions, Strategies, and Instruments," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199248568, Decembrie.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    6. World Bank, 2015. "Republic of Turkey," World Bank Publications - Reports 21776, The World Bank Group.
    7. Vicente Esteve & Francisco Requena, 2006. "A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 111-128.
    8. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    10. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    11. Edward Nelson, 2000. "UK monetary policy 1972-97: a guide using Taylor rules," Bank of England working papers 120, Bank of England.
    12. Maki, Daiki, 2012. "Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2011-2015.
    13. Saten Kumar, 2013. "Financial crisis, Taylor rule and the Fed," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(17), pages 1557-1561, November.
    14. Hakan Berument & Hakan Taşçi, 2004. "Monetary policy rules in practice: evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 33-38.
    15. Douglas Sutherland, 2010. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in the OECD," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 761, OECD Publishing.
    16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    17. Giray Gozgor, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules: Further Evidence from the Case of Turkey," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-7.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Baris Soybilen & Burak Alparslan Eroglu, 2019. "Time-Varying Taylor Rule Estimation for Turkey with Flexible Least Square Method," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 1-20.
    2. Umit Bulut, 2019. "Does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Respond Asymmetrically to Inflation and Output?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(4), pages 381-400, November.
    3. Umit Bulut, 2016. "May Monetary Transmission Lags Have a Role in Missing Inflation Targets in Turkey? Cointegration Tests with Structural Breaks and Structural VAR Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 93-103, April.
    4. Ümit BULUT, 2019. "The Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier-Based Time Series Methods," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(2), pages 159-173, December.
    5. ERDEM Ekrem & BULUT Umit & KOCAK Emrah, 2017. "Have Financial Stability Concerns Changed The Priority Of The Central Bank Of The Republic Of Turkey?," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 35-45, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ümit BULUT, 2019. "The Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier-Based Time Series Methods," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(2), pages 159-173, December.
    2. Umit Bulut, 2019. "Does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Respond Asymmetrically to Inflation and Output?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(4), pages 381-400, November.
    3. Umit Bulut, 2016. "May Monetary Transmission Lags Have a Role in Missing Inflation Targets in Turkey? Cointegration Tests with Structural Breaks and Structural VAR Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 93-103, April.
    4. ERDEM Ekrem & BULUT Umit & KOCAK Emrah, 2017. "Have Financial Stability Concerns Changed The Priority Of The Central Bank Of The Republic Of Turkey?," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 35-45, August.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    6. Nejla Adanur Aklan & Mehmet Nargelecekenler, 2008. "Taylor Rule in Practice: Evidence from Turkey," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 156-166, May.
    7. utku altunöz, 2022. "Describing of central banks’ monetary policy in the context to linear and nonlinear taylor rule: the case of Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4641-4662, December.
    8. Imen Mohamed Sghaier & Zouheir Abida, 2013. "Monetary Policy Rules for a Developing Countries: Evidence from Tunisia," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 5(1), pages 035-046, June.
    9. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:156-166 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen & Thanaset Chevapatrakul, 2008. "Forecasting changes in UK interest rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 53-74.
    11. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ege YAZGAN & Hakan YILMAZKUDAY, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from Turkey and Israel," Middle East and North Africa 330400057, EcoMod.
    13. Giray Gozgor, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules: Further Evidence from the Case of Turkey," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-7.
    14. Hasanov, Mübariz & Omay, Tolga, 2008. "Monetary policy rules in practice: Re-examining the case of Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(16), pages 4309-4318.
    15. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo.
    16. Civcir, Irfan & Akçaglayan, AnIl, 2010. "Inflation targeting and the exchange rate: Does it matter in Turkey?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 339-354, May.
    17. Umit Bulut, 2023. "Measuring the impacts of monetary policy in Turkey: an extended structural vector autoregressive model with structural breaks," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 117-132, February.
    18. Tae-Hwan Kima & Paul Mizena & Alan Thanaset, 2007. "Predicting Directional Changes in Interest Rates: Gains from Using Information from Monetary Indicators," Discussion Papers 07/07, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    19. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2004. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 209-221, May.
    20. Aleem, Abdul & Lahiani, Amine, 2011. "Monetary policy rules for a developing country: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 483-494.
    21. Christopher Adam & David Cobham & Eric Girardin, 2005. "Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985–2003," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 497-516, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey; lags in monetary transmission mechanism; forward-looking reaction function.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:5:y:2016:i:1:p:99-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbmgvme.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.