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Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks

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  • Maki, Daiki

Abstract

This paper introduces cointegration tests allowing for an unknown number of breaks. The introduced tests assume that the unspecified number of breaks is smaller than or equal to the maximum number of breaks set a priori. Monte Carlo simulations provide two main results. First, the proposed tests perform as well as the tests of Gregory and Hansen (1996a) and Hatemi-J (2008), which assume one or two breaks a priori, when the cointegration relationship has one or two breaks. Second, the proposed tests perform better than the tests of Gregory and Hansen (1996a) and Hatemi-J (2008) when the cointegration relationship has more than three breaks or persistent Markov switching shifts. We also provide empirical applications for the money demand of the U.S. The empirical results show that the proposed tests reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration as compared to other tests.

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  • Maki, Daiki, 2012. "Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2011-2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:5:p:2011-2015 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.04.022
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    6. A. Oznur Umit & H. Isil Alkan, 2016. "The Effects of Foreign Direct Investments and Economic Growth on Employment and Female Employment: A Time Series Analysis With Structural Breaks For Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 9(3), pages 43-49, December.
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    11. Tronzano, Marco, 2017. "Testing Fiscal Sustainability In The Transition Economies Of Eastern Europe: The Case Of Poland (1999-2015)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 70(1), pages 103-132.
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    15. Gozgor, Giray & Can, Muhlis, 2016. "Export Product Diversification and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 69761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Umit Bulut, 2016. "May Monetary Transmission Lags Have a Role in Missing Inflation Targets in Turkey? Cointegration Tests with Structural Breaks and Structural VAR Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 93-103, April.
    17. Katircioğlu, Salih Turan & Taşpinar, Nigar, 2017. "Testing the moderating role of financial development in an environmental Kuznets curve: Empirical evidence from Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 572-586.
    18. Dilem Yıldırım & Ethem Erdem Orman, 2016. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in the Presence of Structural Breaks: Evidence from China," ERC Working Papers 1601, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2016.
    19. Cumhur ÞAHÝN & Hüseyin ALTAY, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, January.
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    22. Ketenci, Natalya, 2014. "The bilateral trade balance of the EU in the presence of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 54661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    24. Natalya Ketenci, 2016. "The bilateral trade flows of the EU in the presence of structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1369-1398, December.
    25. repec:eco:journ2:2017-06-8 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Cointegration test; Multiple breaks;

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