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Cointegration Tests Under Multiple Regime Shifts: An Application to the Stock Price-Dividend Relationship

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We examine the properties of several residual-based cointegration tests when long run parameters are subject to multiple shifts driven by an unobservable Markov process. Unlike earlier work, which considered one-off deterministic breaks, our approach has the advantage of allowing for an unspecified number of stochastic breaks. We illustrate this issue by exploring the possibility of Markov switching cointegration in the stock-price dividend relationship and showing that this case is empirically relevant. Our subsequent Monte Carlo analysis reveals that standard cointegration tests are generally reliable, their performance often being robust for a number of plausible regime shift parameterizations.

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  • Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2010. "Cointegration Tests Under Multiple Regime Shifts: An Application to the Stock Price-Dividend Relationship," NIPE Working Papers 28/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:28/2010
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    Cited by:

    1. Maki, Daiki, 2012. "Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2011-2015.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Charl Jooste & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Rangan Gupta & Vassilios Babalos, 2015. "Are there long-run diversification gains from the Dow Jones Islamic finance index?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 945-950, August.
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-566 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Present value model; Cointegration tests; Markov switching.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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