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The present value model of U.S. stock prices redux: a new testing strategy and some evidence

  • Bohl, Martin T.
  • Siklos, Pierre L.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W5X-49CT6NF-1/2/2b85dad6019e12776fb8014c0b35e798
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 44 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 208-223

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Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:44:y:2004:i:2:p:208-223
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167

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  1. Cochrane, John H. & Sbordone, Argia M., 1988. "Multivariate estimates of the permanent components of GNP and stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 255-296.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Falk, Barry L., 1986. "Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle," Staff General Research Papers 11097, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Owen Lamont, 1996. "Earnings and Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 5671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Craine, Roger, 1993. "Rational bubbles : A test," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 829-846.
  6. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December.
  7. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
  9. Edmund Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2001. "Structural booms," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 83-126, 04.
  10. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
  11. Philippe Weil, 1989. "On The Possibility of Price Decreasing Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 2821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  13. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
  14. Richard W. Kopcke, 1997. "Are stocks overvalued?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 21-40.
  15. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  16. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  17. Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 2067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Deadman, Derek F., 1995. "Speculative bubbles with stochastic explosive roots: The failure of unit root testing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 153-163, June.
  19. Priestley, Richard, 2001. "Time-varying persistence in expected returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1271-1286, July.
  20. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2001. "Low frequency movements in stock prices: a state space decomposition," Working Papers 0001, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  21. John B. Carlson & Kevin H. Sargent, 1997. "The recent ascent of stock prices: can it be explained by earnings growth or other fundamentals?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-12.
  22. Siklos, Pierre L., 2002. "Asymmetric adjustment from structural booms and slumps," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 329-333, November.
  23. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
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