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On the Possibility of Price Decreasing Bubbles

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  • Weil, Philippe

Abstract

It is often argued that a rational bubble, because it is positive, must increase the price of a stock. This argument is not valid in general: as soon as bubbles affect interest rates, the fundamental value of a stock depends on whether or not a bubble is present. The existence of a rational bubble then might, by raising equilibrium interest rates, depress the fundamental to such an extent that the sum of the positive bubble and decreased fundamental falls short of the fundamental, no-bubble price. Under conditions made precise below, there can therefore be price decreasing bubbles, and an asset can be "undervalued."
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Suggested Citation

  • Weil, Philippe, 1990. "On the Possibility of Price Decreasing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1467-1474, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:58:y:1990:i:6:p:1467-74
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1987. "On the Inception of Rational Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 697-700.
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    5. West, Kenneth D, 1988. " Bubbles, Fads and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 639-656, July.
    6. Bernheim, B Douglas & Bagwell, Kyle, 1988. "Is Everything Neutral?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 308-338, April.
    7. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huo, Teh-Ming, 1995. "Stationary sunspot equilibrium in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 831-843, May.
    2. Huo, T. -M., 1996. "Monetary confidence and asset prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 363-376.
    3. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2004. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices redux: a new testing strategy and some evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 208-223, May.
    4. Robert A. Jarrow, 2015. "Asset Price Bubbles," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 201-218, December.
    5. KevinJ. Lansing, 2010. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1149-1174, December.
    6. van Norden, Simon, 1996. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-251, May-June.
    7. Guillaume Vuillemey & Etienne Wasmer, 2016. "Frictional Unemployment and Stochastic Bubbles," Sciences Po publications 10265, Sciences Po.
    8. Stefano Bosi & Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2016. "Rational land and housing bubbles in infinite-horizon economies," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16027, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    9. Vuillemey, Guillaume & Wasmer, Etienne, 2016. "Frictional Unemployment with Stochastic Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 11561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Stefano Bosi & Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2015. "Intertemporal equilibrium with heterogeneous agents, endogenous dividends and borrowing constraints," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15067, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    11. Dmitry Kulikov, 2012. "Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles on the Estonian Stock Market," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    12. Sampson, Michael, 2003. "New Eras and Stock Market Bubbles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 297-315, September.
    13. Eduardo Giménez, 2007. "On the positive fundamental value of money with short-sale constraints," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 455-469, October.
    14. Lansing, Kevin J., 2012. "Speculative growth, overreaction, and the welfare cost of technology-driven bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 461-483.
    15. Alessandro Fiori Maccioni, 2011. "Endogenous Bubbles in Derivatives Markets: The Risk Neutral Valuation Paradox," Papers 1106.5274, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2011.
    16. Vigfusson, R. & Van Norden, S., 1996. "Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Detect Bubbles?," Staff Working Papers 96-11, Bank of Canada.
    17. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 345-361.
    18. Kim, Jan R. & Lim, Gieyoung, 2016. "Fundamentals and rational bubbles in the Korean housing market: A modified present-value approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 174-181.
    19. Zhou, Ge, 2011. "Rational bubbles and the spirit of capitalism," MPRA Paper 33988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2002. "Speculative Growth," NBER Working Papers 9381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Massimo Guidolin & Michael T. Owyang & Makoto Shimoji, 2003. "Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications," Working Papers 2003-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Takeshi Kobayashi & Masaya Sakuragawa, 2008. "Boom and Bust Cycle of the Stock Market, and Economic Growth in a Vintage Capital Model," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(3), pages 411-432.
    23. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01314609 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2002. "Forecasting the Collapse of Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the S&P 500 Composite Index," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2002-04, Henley Business School, Reading University.

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