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Cointegration Tests under Multiple Regime Shifts: An Application to the Stock Price-Dividend Relationship

  • Vasco Gabriel

    (University of Surrey and NIPE-UM, Portugal)

  • Luis Martins

    (UNIDE, ISCTE-LUI, Portugal)

We examine the properties of several residual-based cointegration tests when long run parameters are subject to multiple shifts driven by an unobservable Markov process. Unlike earlier work, which considered one-off deterministic breaks, our approach has the advantage of allowing for an unspeci?ed number of stochastic breaks. We illustrate this issue by exploring the possibility of Markov switching cointegration in the stock-price dividend relationship and showing that this case is empirically relevant. Our subsequent Monte Carlo analysis reveals that standard cointegration tests are generally reliable, their performance often being robust for a number of plausible regime shift parameterizations.

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File URL: http://www.fahs.surrey.ac.uk/economics/discussion_papers/2010/DP09-10.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series School of Economics Discussion Papers with number 0910.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0910
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