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Tests for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration: a Monte Carlo Comparison

The aim of this paper is to compare the relative performance of several tests for the null hypothesis of cointegration, in terms of size and power in finite samples. This is carried out resorting to Monte Carlo simulations, considering a range of plausible data-generating processes. As of this writing, there is no study providing guidance on the use of this type of procedures in empirical situations, with the exception of the limited studies of McCabe et al. (1997) and Haug (1996). We also analyse the impact on size and power of choosing different procedures to estimate the long-run variance of the errors. we found that the parametrically adjusted test of McCabe et al. (1997) is the most well-balanced test in terms of power and size distrortions.

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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 7/2001.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:7/2001
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Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal

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  1. Hao, K., 1996. "Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Regression Models: Some Comparisons and Generalizations," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/96, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  2. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Sanso-i-Rossello, Andreu & Ortuno, Manuel Artis, 2001. "Unit root and stationarity tests' wedding," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 1-8, January.
  3. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Steven N. Durlauf, 1985. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 768, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  7. Haug, A.A., 1992. "Tests for Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Papers 93-2, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  8. Lee, Junsoo, 1996. "On the power of stationarity tests using optimal bandwidth estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 131-137, May.
  9. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  10. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-43, January.
  11. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1990. "Testing for a Moving Average Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(04), pages 433-444, December.
  12. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  13. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February.
  14. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:95-115 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Xiao, Zhijie, 1999. "A residual based test for the null hypothesis of cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 133-141, August.
  16. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Syczewska, Ewa M., 1998. "Joint application of the Dickey-Fuller and KPSS tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 17-21, October.
  17. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
  18. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Consistent Test for a Unit Root," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-66, April.
  19. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms, 2004. "Generalizations of the KPSS-test for stationarity," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 483-502.
  20. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Reducing size distortions of parametric stationarity tests," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,12, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  21. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  22. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:4:p:433-44 is not listed on IDEAS
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