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Reducing size distortions of parametric stationarity tests

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  • MARKKU LANNE
  • PENTTI SAIKKONEN

Abstract

The use of asymptotic critical values in stationarity tests against the alternative of a unit root process is known to lead to over‐rejections in finite samples when the considered process is stationary but highly persistent. We claim that, in recent parametric tests, this is caused by estimation errors which result when the autoregressive parameters used to describe the short‐run dynamics of the process are replaced by estimators. We suggest a modification that corrects for these errors. Simulation results show that the modified test works reasonably well when the persistence is moderate and there is no time trend in the model but it is less effective when the model contains a time trend. An empirical illustration with inflation rate data is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Reducing size distortions of parametric stationarity tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 423-439, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:24:y:2003:i:4:p:423-439
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9892.00314
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    1. Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-444, July-Aug..
    2. Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Consistent Test for a Unit Root," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-166, April.
    5. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    6. Choi, In, 1994. "Residual-Based Tests for the Null of Stationarity with Applications to U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 720-746, August.
    7. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1990. "Testing for a Moving Average Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 433-444, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2009. "Construction of Stationarity Tests with Less Size Distortions," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(1), pages 87-105, June.
    2. Vasco Gabriel, 2003. "Tests for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 411-435.
    3. Wasel Shadat, 2011. "On the Nonparametric Tests of Univariate GARCH Regression Models," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1115, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Nunzio Cappuccio & Diego Lubian, 2010. "The fragility of the KPSS stationarity test," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 19(2), pages 237-253, June.
    5. Eiji Kurozumi & Shinya Tanaka, 2010. "Reducing the size distortion of the KPSS test," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 415-426, November.
    6. Jönsson, Kristian, 2006. "Finite-Sample Stability of the KPSS Test," Working Papers 2006:23, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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