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Construction of Stationarity Tests with Less Size Distortions

  • Kurozumi, Eiji

We propose a (trend) stationarity test with a good finite sample size even when a process is (trend) stationary with strong persistence; this is useful for distinguishing between a (trend) stationary process with strong persistence and a unit root process. It could be considered as a modified version of Leybourne and McCabe's test (1994, LMC), but with a different correction method for serial correlation. A Monte Carlo simulation reveals that in terms of empirical size, our test is closer to the nominal one than the original LMC test and is more powerful than the LMC test with size-adjusted critical values.

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File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/16931/1/070econDP05-12.pdf
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Paper provided by Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University in its series Discussion Papers with number 2005-12.

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Length: 24, [5] p.
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hit:econdp:2005-12
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Web page: http://www.econ.hit-u.ac.jp/

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  1. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  2. Rothman, Philip, 1997. "More Uncertainty about the Unit Root in U.S. Real GNP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 771-780, October.
  3. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Reducing size distortions of parametric stationarity tests," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,12, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  4. Kilian, L. & Caner, M., 1999. "Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for the PPP Debate," Papers 99-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  6. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  7. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Consistent Test for a Unit Root," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-66, April.
  8. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 1999. "Re-examining long-run purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 251-266, February.
  9. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1999. "Modified Stationarity Tests with Data-Dependent Model-Selection Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 264-70, April.
  10. Sargan, J D & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Regression Models with First Order Moving Average Errors When the Root Lies on the Unit Circle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 799-820, May.
  11. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1996. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," NBER Technical Working Papers 0206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Davis, Richard A. & Dunsmuir, William T.M., 1996. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation for MA(1) Processes with a Root on or near the Unit Circle," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(01), pages 1-29, March.
  14. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1990. "Testing for a Moving Average Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(04), pages 433-444, December.
  15. Saikkonen, Pentti & Luukkonen, Ritva, 1993. "Point Optimal Tests for Testing the Order of Differencing in ARIMA Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 343-362, June.
  16. Muller, Ulrich K., 2005. "Size and power of tests of stationarity in highly autocorrelated time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 195-213, October.
  17. Jansson, Michael, 2004. "Stationarity Testing With Covariates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(01), pages 56-94, February.
  18. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Convergence to Stochastic Integrals for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 489-500, December.
  19. Choi, In, 1994. "Residual-Based Tests for the Null of Stationarity with Applications to U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 720-746, August.
  20. McCabe, B.P.M. & Leybourne, S.J., 1998. "On Estimating An Arma Model With An Ma Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 326-338, June.
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