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Structural breaks, cointegration and the Fisher effect

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  • Beyer, Andreas
  • Dewald, William G.
  • Haug, Alfred A.

Abstract

There is scant empirical support in the literature for the Fisher effect in the long run, though it is often assumed in theoretical models. We argue that a break in the cointegrating relation introduces a spurious unit root that leads to a rejection of cointegration. We applied new break tests and tested for nonlinearity in the cointegrating relation with post-war data for 15 countries. Our empirical results support cointegration, after accounting for breaks, and a linear Fisher relation in the long run. This is in contrast to several recent studies that found no support for linear cointegration. JEL Classification: E43, C32

Suggested Citation

  • Beyer, Andreas & Dewald, William G. & Haug, Alfred A., 2009. "Structural breaks, cointegration and the Fisher effect," Working Paper Series 1013, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091013
    Note: 336354
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    2. Utku ALTUNÖZ, 2018. "Investigating the Presence of Fisher Effect for the China Economy," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(35).
    3. Jochmann Markus & Koop Gary, 2015. "Regime-switching cointegration," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 35-48, February.
    4. Burak Güriş & Yaşar Yaşgül, 2015. "Does the Fisher hypothesis hold for the G7 countries? Evidence from ADL threshold cointegration test," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2549-2557, November.
    5. Saten Kumar & Zhaoyi Cao, 2020. "Testing for structural changes in the Wagner’s Law for a sample of East Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1959-1976, October.
    6. Tolga Omay & Mubariz Hasanov & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2016. "A Note on the Examination of the Fisher Hypothesis by Using Panel Co-Integration Tests with Break," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 13-26, June.
    7. Erten, Irem & Okay, Nesrin, 2012. "Re-examining Turkey's trade deficit with structural breaks: Evidence from 1989-2011," MPRA Paper 56191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. De Santis, Paola & Drago, Carlo, 2014. "Asimmetria del rischio sistematico dei titoli immobiliari americani: nuove evidenze econometriche [Systematic Risk Asymmetry of the American Real Estate Securities: Some New Econometric Evidence]," MPRA Paper 59381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mustafa Kasim & Bentouir Naima, 2018. "The Relationship Between Inflation Rate and Nominal Interest Rate in Bolivarian Republic Of Venezuela: Revisiting Fisher’s Hypothesis," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 7(4), pages 214-224, November.
    10. Leila Ben Salem & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2024. "On the Impact of Oil Prices on Sectoral Inflation: Evidence from World’s Top Oil Exporters and Importers," CESifo Working Paper Series 10879, CESifo.
    11. Aruga, Kentaka & Managi, Shunsuke, 2011. "Testing the international linkage in the platinum-group metal futures markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 339-345.
    12. Mohammed Saiful ISLAM & Mohammad Hasmat ALI, 2012. "Taylor Principle Supplements the Fisher Effect: Empirical Investigation under the US Context," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 15(1), pages 189-203, June.
    13. Chaido Dritsaki, 2017. "Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test between Inflation and Nominal Interest Rates: Evidence from Three Countries of Europe," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 120-129.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fisher effect; linear and nonlinear cointegration; structural change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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