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Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks

  • Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre

    ()

  • Andreu Sansó

    ()

In this paper we propose an LM-Type statistic to test the null hypothesis of cointegration allowing for the possibility of a structural break, in both the deterministic and the cointegration vector. Our proposal focuses on the presence of endogenous regressors and analyses which estimation method provides better results. The test has been designed to be used as a complement to the usual non-cointegration tests in order to obtain stronger evidence of cointegration. We consider the cases of known and unknown break date. In the latter case, we show that minimizing the SSR results in a super-consistent estimator of the break fraction. Finally, the behaviour of the tests is studied through Monte Carlo experiments.

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Paper provided by Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada in its series DEA Working Papers with number 10.

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Date of creation: Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ubi:deawps:10
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  1. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Busetti, Fabio, 2002. "Testing for (Common) Stochastic Trends in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 81-105, March.
  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:4:p:489-500 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2002. "Testing for stationarity with a break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 63-99, May.
  10. Vasco De & A. Gabriel & Artur C. B. Da Silva Lopes & Luis Nunes, 2003. "Instability in cointegration regressions: a brief review with an application to money demand in Portugal," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 893-900.
  11. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Steven N. Durlauf, 1985. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 768, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  14. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2005. "Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," DEA Working Papers 10, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
  15. Junsoo Lee & Mark Strazicich, 2001. "Testing the null of stationarity in the presence of a structural break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 377-382.
  16. Alan Bartley, William & Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C., 2001. "Testing the null of cointegration in the presence of a structural break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 315-323, December.
  17. Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 1999. "Tests of Common Stochastic Trends," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9902, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Müller, Christian & Saikkonen, Pentti, 1999. "Unit root tests for time series with a structural break: When the break point is known," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,33, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  19. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Simple Test for Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(1), pages 97-103, February.
  20. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  21. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
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  23. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Convergence to Stochastic Integrals for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 489-500, December.
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