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Does the Long-Term Interest Rate Predict Future Inflation? A Multi-country Analysis


  • Engsted, Tom


According to the Fisher hypothesis, an increase (decrease) in the spread between the long-term, or multiperiod, interest rate and the one-period inflation rate signals an increase (decrease) in future one-period inflation. This implication is tested on data from thirteen OECD countries for the period 1962-93. Integration and cointegration techniques are applied to examine the time-series properties of interest rates and inflation rates, and the VAR methodology developed by John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller (1987) is applied to examine the predictive power of the spread as well as in testing the Fisher hypothesis under rational expectations and constant ex ante real rates. Copyright 1995 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Engsted, Tom, 1995. "Does the Long-Term Interest Rate Predict Future Inflation? A Multi-country Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 42-54, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:77:y:1995:i:1:p:42-54

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    Cited by:

    1. Yash P. Mehra, 1997. "The bond rate and actual future inflation," Working Paper 97-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Haug Alfred A & Beyer Andreas & Dewald William, 2011. "Structural Breaks and the Fisher Effect," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, May.
    3. Gong, Fangxiong & Remolona, Eli M, 1997. "Two Factors along the Yield Curve," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(0), pages 1-31, Supplemen.
    4. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 609-642.
    5. Peresetsky, Anatoly & Ivanter, Alexander, 2000. "Interaction of the Russian Financial Markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(1-2), pages 103-140.
    6. Brand, Claus & Cassola, Nuno, 2000. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 0039, European Central Bank.
    7. Engsted, Tom, 2002. " Measures of Fit for Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 301-355, July.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2017. "Testing the Fisher Hypothesis in the G-7 Countries Using I(d) Techniques," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1667, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Malliaropulos, Dimitrios, 2000. "A note on nonstationarity, structural breaks, and the Fisher effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 695-707, May.
    10. NANDWA, Boaz, 2006. "On The Fisher Effect And Inflation Dynamics In Low-Income Countries: An Assessment Of Sub-Saharan Africa Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
    11. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2015. "Decomposing Euro Area Sovereign Debt Yields into Inflation Expectations and Expected Real Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 68866, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2015.
    12. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-42.
    13. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2012. "Interest Rates Determination and Crisis Puzzle (Empirical Evidence from the European Transition Economies)," MPRA Paper 43756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2001. "The Danish stock and bond markets: comovement, return predictability and variance decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 243-271, July.
    15. Westerlund, J., 2006. "Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect," Research Memorandum 054, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    16. Beyer, Andreas & Dewald, William G. & Haug, Alfred A., 2009. "Structural breaks, cointegration and the Fisher effect," Working Paper Series 1013, European Central Bank.
    17. Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September.
    18. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Vplyv inflačných očakávaní na vývoj úrokových sadzieb v krajinách Višegrádskej štvorky
      [Inflation expectations and interest rates development in the Visegrad countries]
      ," MPRA Paper 17059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 193-233.
    20. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Ciner, Cetin, 2001. "The relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation: international evidence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 269-280, July.
    21. Faria, Joao Ricardo & Mollick, Andre Varella, 2004. "The nominal theory of interest under habit formation: evidence for the U.S., 1959-2002," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 333-354, December.
    22. Yash P. Mehra, 1998. "The bond rate and actual future inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 27-47.
    23. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.

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