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New Improved Tests for Cointegration with Structural Breaks

  • Joakim Westerlund
  • David L. Edgerton

This article proposes Lagrange multiplier-based tests for the null hypothesis of no cointegration. The tests are general enough to allow for heteroskedastic and serially correlated errors, deterministic trends, and a structural break of unknown timing in both the intercept and slope. The limiting distributions of the test statistics are derived, and are found to be invariant not only with respect to the trend and structural break, but also with respect to the regressors. A small Monte Carlo study is also conducted to investigate the small-sample properties of the tests. The results reveal that the tests have small size distortions and good power relative to other tests. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00504.x
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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Time Series Analysis.

Volume (Year): 28 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (03)
Pages: 188-224

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:28:y:2007:i:2:p:188-224
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  1. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115.
  3. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-48, November.
  5. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
  6. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-58, December.
  8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  9. repec:cep:stiecm:/1998/365 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Jushan Bai, 1995. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Working papers 95-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Lee, J. & Schmidt, P., 1991. "A Modification of the Schmidt-Phillips Unit Root Test," Papers 9001, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  12. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  13. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2005. "Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," DEA Working Papers 10, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
  14. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 359-368, February.
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