A re-examination of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis in the presence of multiple unknown structural breaks
We test the Unbiased Forward Rate (UFR) hypothesis using new tests for cointegration developed by Hatemi-J (2008a) that allows for multiple unknown structural breaks. We analyse the Australian dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP) and Japanese yen (JPY) (versus the US dollar (USD)) spot rates and forward rates relationship during the period 5 January 1999 to 28 December 2006. We find that the UFR does hold when the effects of the unknown structural breaks are taken into account. The parameters that we obtained were close to unity; hence, taking into account transaction cost and the existence of a risk premium, earning arbitrage profits may still not be possible. Thus, the markets for these currencies may still be considered as efficient.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 44 (2012)
Issue (Month): 11 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:11:p:1443-1448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.