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Forecasting properties of a new method to determine optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models

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  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J

Abstract

This simulation study investigates the forecasting performance of a new information criterion suggested by Hatemi-J (2003) to pick the optimal lag length in the stable and unstable vector autregression (VAR) models. The conducted Monte Carlo experiments reveal that this information criterion is successful in selecting the optimal lag order in the VAR model when the main aim is to draw ex-ante (forecasting) inference regardless if the VAR model is stable or not. In addition, the simulations indicate that this information criterion is robust to autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects.

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  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2007. "Forecasting properties of a new method to determine optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 239-243.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:15:y:2007:i:4:p:239-243
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500461613
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aktolkin Abubakirova & Lyazzat Kudabayeva & Gulnar Abdulina & Aliya Zurbayeva & Indira Tazhiyeva, 2021. "Analysis of the Asymmetric Relationship between Oil Prices and Real Effective Exchange Rate in Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 345-351.
    2. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Abdulrahman Al Shayeb & Eduardo Roca, 2017. "The effect of oil prices on stock prices: fresh evidence from asymmetric causality tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(16), pages 1584-1592, April.
    3. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2014. "On the interaction between government spending and economic performance in Sweden: an asymmetric approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(15), pages 1099-1103, October.
    4. Al Shayeb, Abdulrahman & Hatemi-J , Abdulnasser, 2013. "An Empirical Investigation of the Potential Asymmetric Relationship between the Stock Market and the Exchange Rates in the UAE - Un esame empirico della potenziale relazione asimmetrica tra mercato az," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 66(4), pages 425-438.
    5. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Youssef El-Khatib, 2016. "An extension of the asymmetric causality tests for dealing with deterministic trend components," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 4033-4041, September.
    6. Umit Bulut, 2016. "Do Financial Conditions have a Predictive Power on Inflation in Turkey?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 621-628.
    7. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2021. "Model selection in time series analysis: using information criteria as an alternative to hypothesis testing," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(6), pages 1055-1075, September.
    8. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2016. "On the tourism-led growth hypothesis in the UAE: a bootstrap approach with leveraged adjustments," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 424-427, April.
    9. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Mrittika Shamsuddin, 2016. "The causal interaction between financial development and human development in Bangladesh," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 995-998, September.
    10. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2012. "A re-examination of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis in the presence of multiple unknown structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(11), pages 1443-1448, April.

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