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Spot-forward cointegration, structural breaks and FX market unbiasedness

  • Villanueva, O. Miguel
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 58-78

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:17:y:2007:i:1:p:58-78
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    1. Ali Kutan & Su Zhou, 2003. "Has the Link Between the Spot and Forward Exchange Rates Broken Down? Evidence from Rolling Cointegration Tests," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 369-379, October.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 3861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
    4. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    5. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Long memory or structural breaks: Can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current float?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 380, Boston College Department of Economics.
    9. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
    10. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
    11. Barnhart, Scott W. & Szakmary, Andrew C., 1991. "Testing the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: Evidence on Unit Roots, Co-Integration, and Stochastic Coefficients," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 245-267, June.
    12. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    13. Liu, Peter C. & Maddala, G. S., 1992. "Rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 366-381, August.
    14. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Simple Test for Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(1), pages 97-103, February.
    15. Gadea, Maria Dolores & Sabate, Marcela & Serrano, Jose Maria, 2004. "Structural breaks and their trace in the memory: Inflation rate series in the long-run," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 117-134, April.
    16. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
    17. Alan Bartley, William & Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C., 2001. "Testing the null of cointegration in the presence of a structural break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 315-323, December.
    18. Voronkova, Svitlana, 2004. "Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 633-647.
    19. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
    21. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
    22. Crowder, William J, 1994. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and common stochastic trends," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 551-564, October.
    23. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1984. "Testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 357-368, December.
    24. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
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