IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Has the link between the spot and forward exchange rates broken down? Evidence from rolling cointegration tests


  • Kutan, Ali M.
  • Zhou, Su


In a recent survey, Engel (1996) reported conflicting results about the cointegration relationship between the spot and forward exchange rates. Applying rolling cointegration tests to the mark, yen, and Swiss franc with respect to the U.S. dollar for the post-80 period, we find that the relationship between the two rates broke down in the late 1980s. Although they became cointegrated again during the mid-90s, they no longer co-moved proportionally, however. It is argued that failure to account for such significant structural changes in the data generating process may explain the conflicting findings in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2002. "Has the link between the spot and forward exchange rates broken down? Evidence from rolling cointegration tests," ZEI Working Papers B 08-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b082002

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:984-1014 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-734, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Newbold, Paul & Wohar, Mark E. & Rayner, Tony & Kellard, Neil & Ennew, Christine, 1998. "Two puzzles in the analysis of foreign exchange market efficiency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 95-111.
    4. Eric Zivot, 1998. "Cointegration and Forward and Spot Exchange Rate Regressions," Econometrics 9812001, EconWPA.
    5. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    6. Zivot, Eric, 2000. "Cointegration and forward and spot exchange rate regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 785-812, December.
    7. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    8. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
    9. Heejoon Kang, 1999. "The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 325-346, July.
    10. Rangvid, Jesper & Sørensen, Carsten, 2000. "Convergence in the ERM and declining numbers of common stochastic trends," Working Papers 2000-8, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    11. Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 984-1014, October.
    12. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    13. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    14. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    15. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    16. Rangvid, Jesper, 2001. "Increasing convergence among European stock markets?: A recursive common stochastic trends analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 383-389, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. repec:kap:fmktpm:v:31:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11408-017-0299-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Zhao, Yanping & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert & Yang, Haizhen, 2013. "The relationship between the Renminbi future spot return and the forward discount rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 156-168.
    3. Sekioua, Sofiane H., 2006. "Nonlinear adjustment in the forward premium: evidence from a threshold unit root test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 164-183.
    4. Villanueva, O. Miguel, 2007. "Spot-forward cointegration, structural breaks and FX market unbiasedness," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 58-78, February.
    5. Chor Foon Tang & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2011. "Revisit Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: evidence from Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2237-2249.
    6. Sofiane Sekioua, 2004. "The forward unbiasedness hypothesis and the forward premium: a nonlinear analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 85, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Tang, Chor Foon, 2007. "The stability of money demand function in Japan: Evidence from rolling cointegration approach," MPRA Paper 19807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Tsung-Wu Ho & Wan-Shin Mo, 2016. "Testing the Persistence of the Forward Premium: Structural Changes or Misspecification?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 119-138, February.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b082002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.