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Relation between ISE 30 index and ISE 30 index futures markets: Evidence from recursive and rolling cointegration

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  • Aysegul Ates

    () (Akdeniz University, Department of Economics, Antalya, Turkey.)

Abstract

Turkey is one of the most dynamic emerging markets in the world and its futures market has developed significantly since the introduction of futures contracts by Turkish Derivatives Exchange in 2005. Istanbul Stock Index 30 (ISE 30) futures was one of the first contracts introduced and its trading increased rapidly over time. This study specifically focuses on the evolution and stability of cointegration relationship between the futures and spot prices of ISE 30 index during the sample period from February 4, 2005 through October 19, 2012. We test whether changing market conditions have an impact on the long-run relationship between spot index and index futures markets by employing recursive and rolling cointegration techniques. The findings reveal that the cointegration relationship weakens significantly during the global financial crisis and eurozone debt crisis periods but holds mostly over the estimation period.

Suggested Citation

  • Aysegul Ates, 2016. "Relation between ISE 30 index and ISE 30 index futures markets: Evidence from recursive and rolling cointegration," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(1), pages 35-42, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:lrc:lareco:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:35-42
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco Pattarin & Riccardo Ferretti, 2004. "The Mib30 index and futures relationship: econometric analysis and implications for hedging," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(18), pages 1281-1289.
    2. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    3. Jesper Rangvid & Carsten Sørensen, 2002. "Convergence in the ERM and Declining Numbers of Common Stochastic Trends," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 1(2), pages 183-213, September.
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    5. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
    6. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Cal Muckley, 2004. "Dynamics of Equity Market Integration in Europe: Evidence of Changes over time and with events," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp019, IIIS.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging Markets; Index Futures; ISE 30; Rolling Cointegration.;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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