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The Mib30 index and futures relationship: econometric analysis and implications for hedging


  • Francesco Pattarin
  • Riccardo Ferretti


The interactions between the Mib30 stock market index and its future contract are examined. Using daily data for the 1994-2002 period, it is found that the cost-of-carry model holds as an equilibrium relationship between spot and futures prices. Deviations from equilibrium are corrected by movements in the spot market, but cross-market dynamics are also important in the short run. We model the time-varying volatility of daily returns' as an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic process; this model used to estimate minimum-variance hedge ratios. In- and out-of-sample comparisons with static hedging show that, by carefully choosing the ARCH specification, a significant improvement in variance reduction can be achieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Pattarin & Riccardo Ferretti, 2004. "The Mib30 index and futures relationship: econometric analysis and implications for hedging," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(18), pages 1281-1289.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:18:p:1281-1289 DOI: 10.1080/09603100412331313578

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-630, November.
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    5. Tae H. Park & Lorne N. Switzer, 1995. "Bivariate GARCH estimation of the optimal hedge ratios for stock index futures: A note," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 61-67, February.
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    7. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-124, April-Jun.
    8. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    10. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pok, Wee Ching & Poshakwale, Sunil S. & Ford, J.L., 2009. "Stock index futures hedging in the emerging Malaysian market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-288.
    2. Aysegul Ates, 2016. "Relation between ISE 30 index and ISE 30 index futures markets: Evidence from recursive and rolling cointegration," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(1), pages 35-42, February.

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