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Growth-Effects of Inflation Targeting: The Role of Financial Sector Development


  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)


The paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium monetary endogenous growth model. The closed economy model is inhabited by consumers, firms, a Cournotian monopolistically compet- itive banking system, besides, an inflation-targeting monetary authority, and, in turn, analyzes the effect of a tight monetary (disinflationary) policy on growth. We show that the effect of a lower inflation target on growth is ambiguous, with the ultimate effect depending on the initial levels of growth and the individual bank size, besides, a whole host of structural parameters defining the preferences and the production structure of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta, 2006. "Growth-Effects of Inflation Targeting: The Role of Financial Sector Development," Working Papers 200610, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:200610

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209.
    3. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Espinosa-Vega, Marco A & Yip, Chong K, 1999. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in an Endogenous Growth Model with Financial Intermediaries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 595-615, August.
    5. WenShwo Fang & Stephen Miller, 2011. "The lag in effect of inflation targeting and policy evaluation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1371-1375.
    6. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    7. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
    8. Marc Lavoie, 2006. "A Post-Keynesian Amendment To The New Consensus On Monetary Policy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 165-192, May.
    9. V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1995. "The growth effects of monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 18-32.
    10. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    11. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller & Alexandros Panethimitakis & Athanassios Vamvakidis, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Evidence from Aggregate European Data," Working papers 2005-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    12. Mollick, André Varella & Cabral, René & Carneiro, Francisco G., 2011. "Does inflation targeting matter for output growth? Evidence from industrial and emerging economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 537-551, July.
    13. Gilberto Libanio, 2005. ""Good governance" in monetary policy and the negative real effects of inflation targeting in developing economies," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td277, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    14. Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2010. "Evaluating the Welfare Cost of Inflation in a Monetary Endogenous Growth General Equilibrium Model: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 201002, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Evaluation: Short-run Costs and Long-run Irrelevance," Working Papers 0920, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mollick, André Varella & Cabral, René & Carneiro, Francisco G., 2011. "Does inflation targeting matter for output growth? Evidence from industrial and emerging economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 537-551, July.
    2. Wang, Chan, 2012. "A very preliminary survey on growth and development," MPRA Paper 39037, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Inflation Targeting; economic growth; financial sector development;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy


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