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Does Inflation Targeting Matter for Output Growth? Evidence from Industrial and Emerging Economies

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  • Varella Mollick, Andre

    () (University of Texas - Pan American)

  • Torres, Rene Cabral

    () (Escuela de Graduados en Administracion Publica y Politica Publica)

  • Carneiro, Francisco G.

    () (The World Bank)

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of inflation targeting on industrial and emerging economies' output growth over the "globalization years" of 1986-2004. Controlling for trade openness and two indicators of financial globalization, the authors find systematic positive and significant effects of inflation targeting on real output growth. In dynamic models, the findings show strong output persistence in industrial economies, in which partial and full inflation targeting regimes have a positive long-run impact on growth. In emerging markets, only full inflation targeting policies have any output effect in the long-run. The results suggest that strict inflation targeting is needed to make the discipline effect of the disinflation process outweigh the output costs of promoting high interest rates to attract capital flows in a global world. These findings are robust to the treatment of endogenous globalization measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Varella Mollick, Andre & Torres, Rene Cabral & Carneiro, Francisco G., 2008. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter for Output Growth? Evidence from Industrial and Emerging Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4791, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4791
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    Cited by:

    1. Wai Ching Poon & Yong Shen Lee, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in ASEAN-10," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(1), pages 141-157, March.
    2. Ftiti, Zied & Hichri, Walid, 2014. "The price stability under inflation targeting regime: An analysis with a new intermediate approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 23-32.
    3. Kartaev, P. & Philippov, A. & Khazanov, A., 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Real GDP Dynamics: Cross-Country Evidence," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 107-128.
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    6. Manai Daboussi, Olfa, 2014. "Inflation Targeting As a Monetary Policy Rule: Experience and Prospects," MPRA Paper 59336, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Oct 2014.
    7. repec:scn:financ:y:2018:i:1:p:50-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-099 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Olfa Manai Daboussi, 2016. "Enhanced Economic Stability and the Role of Inflation Targeting Policy: Empirical Study on Case of Developing Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(6), pages 352-362, June.
    10. repec:rjr:romjef:v::y:2017:i:4:p:152-165 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ftiti, Zied, 2010. "The macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting policy: An approach based on the evolutionary co-spectral analysis (extension for the case of a multivariate process)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 468-476, January.
    12. de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Andrade, Joaquim Pinto, 2016. "Inflation targeting on output growth: A pulse dummy analysis of dynamic macroeconomic panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 145-169.
    13. Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Obben, James & Shakur, Shamim, 2016. "An empirical assessment of monetary discretion: The case of Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 954-970.
    14. Cabral,Rene & Carneiro,Francisco Galrao & Mollick,Andre Varella, 2016. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility in emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7712, The World Bank.
    15. Gustavo José De Guimarães E Souza & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça & Joaquim Pinto De Andrade, 2014. "Output Growth And Inflation Targeting: Empirical Effects Across The World," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 057, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    16. Can Tansel TUGCU & Serdar OZTURK, 2015. "Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 105-112, Winter.
    17. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1212-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Rangan Gupta, 2011. "Growth-Effects of Inflation Targeting: The Role of Financial Sector Development," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 65-87, May.
    19. István Ábel & Orsolya Csortos & Kristóf Lehmann & Annamária Madarász & Zoltán Szalai, 2014. "Inflation targeting in the light of lessons from the financial crisis," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 13(4), pages 35-56.
    20. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:2:p:135-154 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:eee:joecas:v:17:y:2018:i:c:p:13-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Ayres, Kelly & Belasen, Ariel R. & Kutan, Ali M., 2014. "Does inflation targeting lower inflation and spur growth?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-388.
    23. Carneiro,Francisco Galrao & Garrido,Leonardo, 2015. "New evidence on the cyclicality of fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7293, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Globalization; Inflation Targeting; Panel Data Methods;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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