IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v1y1993i2p145-63.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Marion, Nancy P

Abstract

This paper explores links between policy uncertainty and growth. Using an endogenous growth model in which domestic investment is characterized by irreversibilities and policy fluctuates between a high- and a low-tax regime, it shows that the magnitude of policy fluctuation and the persistence of policy jointly determine the pattern of investment and growth. Cross-section regressions confirm that for 46 developing countries over the 1970-85 period, policy uncertainty is negatively correlated with both investment and growth. Policy persistence also plays an important role. Copyright 1993 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P, 1993. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-163, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:1:y:1993:i:2:p:145-63
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    4. Meir Kohn & Nancy Marion, 1992. "The Implications of Knowledge-Based Growth for the Optimality of Open Capital Markets," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 865-883, November.
    5. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    8. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    9. A. Sandmo, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(3), pages 353-360.
    10. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 329-379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1991. "Explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages 16-48, March.
    12. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    13. Stern, Nicholas, 1989. "The Economics of Development: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 597-685, September.
    14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alan M. Taylor, 1995. "Growth and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region: On the Role of Openness, Trade and Migration," NBER Working Papers 5276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Garrison, Charles B. & Lee, Feng-Yao, 1995. "The effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth rates: A cross-country study," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-317.
    4. Di Giannatale, Sonia & Roa, María José, 2016. "Formal Saving in Developing Economies: Barriers, Interventions, and Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8107, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista, 2005. "Regional Convergence of Income and Labor Productivity in Mexico," Urban/Regional 0512016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    7. Balaji Bathmanaban & Raja Sethu Durai S & Ramachandran M, 2017. "The relationship between Output Uncertainty and Economic Growth-Evidence from India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2680-2691.
    8. Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2012. "Effects of growth volatility on economic performance – Empirical evidence from Turkey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 351-356.
    9. John F. Helliwell, 1994. "International Growth Linkages: Evidence from Asia and the OECD," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, pages 7-29, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Roubini, Nouriel & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "A growth model of inflation, tax evasion, and financial repression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 275-301, April.
    11. Corbo, Vittorio & Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "Structural adjustment, stabilization and policy reform: Domestic and international finance," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 44, pages 2845-2924, Elsevier.
    12. Themba G Chirwa & NM Odhiambo, 2019. "An Empirical Test Of Exogenous Growth Models: Evidence From Three Southern African Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 7-38, January –.
    13. Masino, Serena, 2013. "Macro-Institutional Instability and the Incentive to Innovate," MPRA Paper 45938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Miljkovic, Dragan & Rimal, Arbindra, 2008. "The impact of socio-economic factors on political instability: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2454-2463, December.
    15. Xavier Pautrel, 2001. "Formation dans la production, capital humain, innovation et croissance," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 171-185.
    16. Kar, Muhsin & NazlIoglu, Saban & AgIr, Hüseyin, 2011. "Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 685-693, January.
    17. Long, Shaobo & Pei, Hongxia & Tian, Hao & Li, Fangfang, 2021. "Asymmetric impacts of economic policy uncertainty, capital cost, and raw material cost on China’s investment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 129-144.
    18. Osvaldo Lagares, 2016. "Capital, Economic Growth and Relative Income Differences in Latin America," Discussion Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    19. Palle Andersen & David Gruen, 1995. "Macroeconomic Policies and Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Palle Andersen & Jacqueline Dwyer & David Gruen (ed.),Productivity and Growth, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Giuseppina Testa, 2005. "Economic Growth and Finance. A cointegration analysis in US and Japan," Quaderni DSEMS 22-2005, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:1:y:1993:i:2:p:145-63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.