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Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy

Author

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  • Alfred A. Haug

    () (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • Christie Smith

    () (Economics Department, Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

Traditional vector autoregressions derive impulse responses using iterative techniques that may compound specification errors. Local projection techniques are robust to this problem, and Monte Carlo evidence suggests they provide reliable estimates of the true impulse responses. We use local linear projections to investigate the dynamic properties of a model for a small open economy, New Zealand. We compare impulse responses from local projections to those from standard techniques, and consider the implications for monetary policy. We pay careful attention to the dimensionality of the model, and focus on effects of policy on GDP, interest rates, prices and exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Working Papers 0707, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:0707
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    Cited by:

    1. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: An application to New Zealand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 496-511, April.
    2. Günes Kamber & Gabriela Nodari & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "The Impact of Commodity Price Movements on the New Zealand Economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    4. Alfred A. Haug & Tomasz Jedrzejowicz & Anna Sznajderska, 2013. "Combining Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an SVAR for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 1313, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2013.
    5. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 537-558, October.
    6. Kamber, Gunes & McDonald, Chris & Sander, Nick & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Modelling the business cycle of a small open economy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 546-569.
    7. Aron Drew & Özer Karagedikli, 2007. "Some Benefits of Monetary-Policy Transparency in New Zealand," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 521-539, December.
    8. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Gael Price, 2013. "Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    10. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    11. Ozer Karagedikli & Michael Ryan & Daan Steenkamp & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? The sectoral effects of the exchange rate shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2013-73, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Özer Karagedikli & Rishab Sethi & Christie Smith & Aaron Drew, 2008. "Changes in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2009. "Multi-step forecasting in emerging economies: An investigation of the South African GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 602-628, July.
    15. Özer Karagedikli & Ryan, Michael & Daan Steenkamp & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? Sectoral effects of the exchange rate shocks," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2013/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," Economic Research Papers 270753, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    17. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Nicholas Sander & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "A structural model for policy analysis and forecasting: NZSIM," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    18. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 971, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    19. Brady, Ryan R., 2014. "The spatial diffusion of regional housing prices across U.S. states," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 150-166.
    20. Chris McDonald, 2012. "Kiwi drivers the New Zealand dollar experience," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local linear projection-based impulse responses; structural identiÞcation for New Zealand;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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