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A Simple, Structural, and Empirical Model of the Antipodean Transmission Mechanism

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Abstract

This paper studies the transmission of business cycles and the sources of economic fluctuations in Australia and New Zealand by estimating a Bayesian DSGE model. The theoretical model is that of two open economies that are tightly integrated by trade in goods and assets. They can be thought of as economically large relative to each other, but small with respect to the rest of the world. The two economies are hit by a variety of country-specific and world-wide shocks. The main findings are that the pre-eminent driving forces of Antipodean business cycles are worldwide technology shocks and foreign, i.e. rest-of-the-world, expenditure shocks. Domestic technology shocks and monetary policy shocks appear to play only a minor role. Transmission of policy shocks is asymmetric, and neither central bank is found to respond to exchange rate movements. The model can explain 15 percent of the observed exchange rate volatility.

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  • Thomas A Lubik, 2005. "A Simple, Structural, and Empirical Model of the Antipodean Transmission Mechanism," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2005/06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2005. "Reaction functions in a small open economy: What role for non-traded inflation?," Working Papers 2014-44, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    5. Bergin, Paul R., 2006. "How well can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics explain the exchange rate and current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 675-701, August.
    6. Thomas Lubik & Wing Teo, 2005. "Do World Shocks Drive Domestic Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation," Economics Working Paper Archive 522, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    7. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    8. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    9. Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993. "International Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-359, June.
    10. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    11. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    12. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Buncic & Martin Melecky, 2008. "An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2012. "Local Linear Impulse Responses for a Small Open Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(3), pages 470-492, June.
    3. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    4. Martin Melecky, 2008. "A Structural Investigation of Third-Currency Shocks to Bilateral Exchange Rates," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 19-48, May.
    5. Keiko Honjo & Benjamin L Hunt, 2006. "Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland," IMF Working Papers 06/262, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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