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Trend Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics : A New Keynesian Approach

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  • KANO, Takashi

Abstract

This study examines the exchange rate implications of trend inflation within a two-country New Keynesian (NK) model. An NK Phillips curve generalized by trend inflation makes the two-country inflation differential smoother, more persistent, and less sensitive to the real exchange rate. The equilibrium of the model, which is supported under Taylor rule-type monetary policies with a persistent trend inflation shock and strong interest rate smoothing, mimics a series of empirical regularities in real and nominal exchange rates that are hard to be reconciled jointly within a standard NK model. Trend inflation helps explain the empirical puzzles of exchange rate dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • KANO, Takashi, 2016. "Trend Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics : A New Keynesian Approach," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-38, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-38
    Note: December 2016 (revised October 2018)
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    3. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
    4. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
    5. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
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    7. Jens Iversen & Ulf S?derstr?m, 2014. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 1072-1089, March.
    8. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
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    11. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2004. "Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 191-217, January.
    12. KANO, Takashi, 2016. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A General Equilibrium Exploration," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-19, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    13. Benigno, Gianluca, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 473-502, April.
    14. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-2126, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real and Nominal Exchange Rates; Trend Inflation; New Keynesian Models;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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