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Stochastic Growth in the United States and Euro Area

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  • Peter N. Ireland

Abstract

This paper estimates, using data from the United States and Euro Area, a two-country stochastic growth model in which both neutral and investment-specific technology shocks are nonstationary but cointegrated across economies. The results point to large and persistent swings in productivity, both favorable and adverse, originating in the US but not transmitted to the EA. More specifically, the results suggest that while the EA missed out on the period of rapid investment-specific technological change enjoyed in the US during the 1990s, it also escaped the stagnation in neutral technological progress that plagued the US in the 1970s.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter N. Ireland, 2011. "Stochastic Growth in the United States and Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 16681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16681
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Marino, 2013. "The Italian productivity slowdown in a Real Business Cycle perspective," SERIES 0046, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Apr 2013.
    2. Gete, Pedro & Melkadze, Givi, 2018. "Aggregate volatility and international dynamics. The role of credit supply," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 143-158.
    3. Dey, Jaya, 2017. "The Role Of Investment-Specific Technology Shocks In Driving International Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 555-598, April.
    4. Francesca Marino, 2016. "The Italian productivity slowdown in a Real Business Cycle perspective," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 63(2), pages 171-193, June.
    5. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    6. Takashi Kano, 2021. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A General Equilibrium Exploration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 95-117, February.
    7. Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2015. "A new approach to multi-step forecasting using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 237-242.
    8. Federico Mandelman & Pau Rabanal & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez & Diego Vilan, 2011. "Investment Specific Technology Shocks and International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 136-155, January.
    9. Alban Moura, 2020. "Total factor productivity and the measurement of neutral technology," BCL working papers 143, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    10. Takashi Kano, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Closing a Two-country Model," CAMA Working Papers 2013-62, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2020. "Real exchange rates and international co-movement: News-shocks and non-tradable goods with complete markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 154-169, January.
    12. Dey, Jaya, 2013. "The role of investment-specific technology shocks in driving international business cycles: a bayesian approach," MPRA Paper 57803, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Aug 2014.
    13. Christoph Gortz & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Christoph Thoenissen, 2023. "The Anatomy of Small Open Economy Productivity Trends," Discussion Papers 23-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    14. Akkoyun, Hüseyin Çağrı & Arslan, Yavuz & Kılınç, Mustafa, 2017. "Risk sharing and real exchange rates: The role of non-tradable sector and trend shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 232-248.
    15. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2020. "Real exchange rates and international co-movement: News-shocks and non-tradable goods with complete markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 154-169, January.
    16. Naohisa Hirakata & Takushi Kurozumi, 2013. "The International Finance Multiplier in Business Cycle Fluctuations," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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