IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v35y2013icp689-700.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The cost of adjustment: On comovement between the trade balance and the terms of trade

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitriev, Alexandre
  • Roberts, Ivan

Abstract

The S-shaped cross-correlation function between the trade balance and the terms of trade has been documented for several countries and time frames. The ability of two-country, two-good business cycle models to reproduce this regularity hinges on the dynamics of capital formation. We consider the consequences of modeling the adjustment costs for comovement in the trade balance and the terms of trade. Both complete and incomplete market models with capital adjustment costs à la Hayashi (1982) deliver the S-curve seen in the data while the model with investment adjustment costs à la Christiano et al. (2005) does not.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitriev, Alexandre & Roberts, Ivan, 2013. "The cost of adjustment: On comovement between the trade balance and the terms of trade," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 689-700.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:689-700
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026499931300343X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baxter, Marianne & Farr, Dorsey D., 2005. "Variable capital utilization and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 335-347, March.
    2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    3. Kollmann, Robert & Maliar, Serguei & Malin, Benjamin A. & Pichler, Paul, 2011. "Comparison of solutions to the multi-country Real Business Cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 186-202, February.
    4. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-854, November.
    5. Gourio, François & Siemer, Michael & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2013. "International risk cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 471-484.
    6. Johri, Alok & Letendre, Marc-André & Luo, Daqing, 2011. "Organizational capital and the international co-movement of investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 511-523.
    7. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 101-121, January.
    8. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    9. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
    10. Federico Mandelman & Pau Rabanal & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez & Diego Vilan, 2011. "Investment Specific Technology Shocks and International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 136-155, January.
    11. Thoenissen, Christoph, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics, Asset Market Structure, And The Role Of The Trade Elasticity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 119-143, February.
    12. Viktoria Hnatkovska & Michael Devereux, 2011. "Consumption Risk Sharing, the Real Exchange Rate, and Borders: Why Does the Exchange Rate Make Such a Difference?," 2011 Meeting Papers 1027, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Maliar, Serguei & Maliar, Lilia & Judd, Kenneth, 2011. "Solving the multi-country real business cycle model using ergodic set methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 207-228, February.
    14. Uribe, Martín & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 2004. "Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the US Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 4654, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1869 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Cooley, Thomas F, 1997. "Calibrated Models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 55-69, Autumn.
    17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    18. Yossi Yakhin, 2007. "Staggered Wages, Financial Frictions, and the International Comovement Problem," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 148-171, January.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Michele Boldrin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March.
    20. Charlotta Groth & Hashmat Khan, 2010. "Investment Adjustment Costs: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1469-1494, December.
    21. Backus, David K., 1993. "Interpreting comovements in the trade balance and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 375-387, May.
    22. Parantap Basu & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "International business cycles and the relative price of investment goods," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 580-606, May.
    23. Kenneth Judd & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2009. "Numerically Stable Stochastic Simulation Approaches for Solving Dynamic Economic Models," NBER Working Papers 15296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2008. "Closing international real business cycle models with restricted financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 733-756, September.
    25. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    26. Kollmann, Robert, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 945-961, May.
    27. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Judd, Kenneth L. & Juillard, Michel, 2011. "Computational suite of models with heterogeneous agents II: Multi-country real business cycle models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 175-177, February.
    28. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-543, June.
    29. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    30. Dmitriev, Alexandre & Roberts, Ivan, 2012. "International business cycles with complete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 862-875.
    31. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2007. "The S‐curve Dynamics of US Bilateral Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 430-439, May.
    32. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    33. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    34. Raffo, Andrea, 2008. "Net exports, consumption volatility and international business cycle models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 14-29, May.
    35. Beaubrun-Diant, Kevin E. & Tripier, Fabien, 2005. "Asset returns and business cycles in models with investment adjustment costs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 141-146, January.
    36. Finn E. Kydland (ed.), 1995. "Business Cycle Theory," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 565.
    37. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2009. "On the international transmission of technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 45-59, June.
    38. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    39. Robert E. Hall, 2004. "Measuring Factor Adjustment Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 899-927.
    40. Michael B. Devereux & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2011. "Consumption Risk-Sharing and the Real Exchange Rate: Why does the Nominal Exchange Rate Make Such a Difference?," NBER Working Papers 17288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Senhadji, Abdelhak S., 1998. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in LDCs: The S-curve," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 105-131, October.
    42. Rabanal, Pau & Tuesta, Vicente, 2010. "Euro-dollar real exchange rate dynamics in an estimated two-country model: An assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 780-797, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.
    2. Dmitriev, Alexandre & Roberts, Ivan, 2012. "International business cycles with complete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 862-875.
    3. Dey, Jaya, 2017. "The Role Of Investment-Specific Technology Shocks In Driving International Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 555-598, April.
    4. Dey, Jaya, 2013. "The role of investment-specific technology shocks in driving international business cycles: a bayesian approach," MPRA Paper 57803, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Aug 2014.
    5. Johri, Alok & Letendre, Marc-André & Luo, Daqing, 2011. "Organizational capital and the international co-movement of investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 511-523.
    6. Marta Arespa & Diego Gruber, 2021. "Product Quality and International Price Dynamics over the Business Cycle," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 1054-1074, October.
    7. Andrea Raffo, 2008. "Technology Shocks: Novel Implications for International Business Cycles," 2008 Meeting Papers 511, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Jacob, Punnoose & Peersman, Gert, 2013. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 302-315.
    9. Letendre, Marc-André & Wagner, Joel, 2018. "Agency Costs, Risk Shocks, And International Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 1134-1172, July.
    10. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2020. "Real exchange rates and international co-movement: News-shocks and non-tradable goods with complete markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 154-169, January.
    11. Hirata, Hideaki, 2014. "Preference shocks, international frictions, and international business cycles," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 92-104.
    12. Yi Wen, 2005. "By force of demand: explaining international comovements and the saving-investment correlation puzzle," Working Papers 2005-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Wen, Yi, 2007. "By force of demand: Explaining international comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, January.
    14. Parantap Basu & Shesadri Banerjee, 2015. "Role of IST and TFP Shocks in Business Cycle Fluctuations: The Case of India," CEGAP Working Papers 2015_04, Durham University Business School.
    15. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2017. "Understanding the cross-country effects of U.S. technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 143-164.
    16. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2013. "News Shocks, Real Exchange Rates and International Co-Movements," BCL working papers 83, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    17. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    18. Peter N. Ireland, 2013. "Stochastic Growth In The United States And Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, February.
    19. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel & Powo Fosso, Bruno, 2010. "Global versus country-specific shocks and international business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-16, March.
    20. Stephen McKnight & Laura Povoledo, 2015. "Can indeterminacy and self-fulfilling expectations help explain international business cycles?," Working Papers 20151504, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital adjustment costs; Investment adjustment costs; S-curve; International business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:689-700. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.