What's News in Business Cycles
In the context of a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model, we perform classical maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimations of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles in the postwar United States. Our identification approach relies on the fact that forward-looking agents react to anticipated changes in exogenous fundamentals before such changes materialize. It further allows us to distinguish changes in fundamentals by their anticipation horizon. We find that anticipated shocks account for about half of predicted aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment, and employment.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2009.
"Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete,"
NBER Working Papers
14950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2010. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2009.
"Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach,"
Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers
0921, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, 02.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2008. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002352, David K. Levine.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2008. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
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