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News Driven Business Cycles and Data on Asset Prices in Estimated DSGE Models

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  • Stefan Avdjiev

    (Bank for International Settlements)

Abstract

We demonstrate that inference from estimated structural News Driven Business Cycle (NDBC) models about the main drivers of fluctuations in macroeconomic variables and asset prices is sensitive to assumptions about the structure of the news shock processes. We show that, when data on asset prices are used in the estimation, a long-run news shock specification has a better fit than the short-run news shock specification which is prevalent the existing literature. The variance decompositions from the former model specification reveal that long-run news shocks are not the main drivers of macroeconomic variables, but do account for the majority of aggregate stock market fluctuations. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Avdjiev, 2016. "News Driven Business Cycles and Data on Asset Prices in Estimated DSGE Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 181-197, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:12-186
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2015.01.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Rudi Steinbach & Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit, 2014. "Monetary policy and financial shocks in an empirical small open-economy DSGE model," EcoMod2014 7194, EcoMod.
    4. Fabio Milani, 2012. "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: a Survey," Working Papers 121301, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    5. Stefan Avdjiev, 2016. "News Driven Business Cycles and Data on Asset Prices in Estimated DSGE Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 181-197, April.
    6. Fabio Milani & Ashish Rajrhandari, 2012. "Observed Expectations, News Shocks, and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 121305, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    7. Soldatos, Gerasimos T. & Varelas, Erotokritos, 2017. "Firms’ rational expectations, workers’ psychology, and monetary policy in a behavioral real business cycle model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 129-139.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    News Driven Business Cycles; Asset prices; Estimated DSGE models; Bayesian MCMC methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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