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News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle

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  • Karnizova Lilia

    (University of Ottawa)

Abstract

Overly optimistic expectations concerning productivity and consequent downward revisions are commonly viewed as a key determinant of U.S. investment during the boom-bust cycle of 1995--2003. This view is formalized and evaluated in a general equilibrium model with news shocks about future productivity and preferences for financial wealth. The model generates a boom-bust cycle in response to good news that is not realized. A method is devised to estimate "the productivity prospects": a series that captures the effects of news shocks on economic decisions. The estimated series rises during the boom, falls during the recession and helps forecast future productivity shocks at several horizons. The model's predictions for sample paths of hours worked, output, investment, consumption, wages and stock prices are largely in conformity with U.S. data. The model therefore offers a possible solution to several puzzles identified in the literature regarding the 1990's boom and the 2001 recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Karnizova Lilia, 2012. "News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-50, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:12:y:2012:i:1:n:15
    DOI: 10.1515/1935-1690.2436
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. Nadav Ben Zeev & Evi Pappa, 2017. "Chronicle of a War Foretold: The Macroeconomic Effects of Anticipated Defence Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1568-1597, August.
    3. Lilia Karnizova, 2013. "Letting the speculative and the news views of the Japanese business cycle compete," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1146-1158.
    4. Ellen McGrattan, 2020. "Intangible Capital and Measured Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 147-166, August.
    5. Hafedh Bouakez & Laurent Kemoe, 2023. "News Shocks, Business Cycles, and the Disinflation Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2115-2151, December.
    6. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Is There A Single Shock That Drives The Majority Of Business Cycle Fluctuations?," Working Papers 1906, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    7. Hafedh BOUAKEZ & Laurent KEMOE, 2017. "News Shocks, Business Cycles, and the Disinflation Puzzle," Cahiers de recherche 05-2017, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    8. Karnizova Lilia, 2012. "News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-50, June.
    9. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2018. "What can we learn about news shocks from the late 1990s and early 2000s boom-bust period?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 94-105.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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