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Explaining speculative expansions


  • Xiao, Wei

    (University of New Orleans)


In this paper we use a modified neoclassical business cycle model to test two competing explanations of the expansion of the 1990s. The model can have indeterminate, multiple equilibria that give rise to expectation-driven business cycles. We fit into the model series of estimated speculative and productivity shocks and compare its predictions with empirical data. Our results suggest that the speculation hypothesis has more explanatory power than the productivity hypothesis in terms of matching the data. Speculative behavior of investors, therefore, may have contributed to the investment boom, the prolonged expansion, and the subsequent recession of the period 1991-2001.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao, Wei, 2003. "Explaining speculative expansions," Working Papers 2003-02, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:uno:wpaper:2003-02

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    Cited by:

    1. Lilia Karnizova, 2013. "Letting the speculative and the news views of the Japanese business cycle compete," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1146-1158.
    2. Karnizova Lilia, 2012. "News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-50, June.

    More about this item


    Neoclassical Business Cycle; Speculative Behavior; Productivity Shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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