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The analytics of technology news shocks

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  • William D. Dupor
  • M. Saif Mehkari

Abstract

This paper constructs several models in which, unlike the standard neoclassical growth model, positive news about future technology generates an increase in current consumption, hours and investment. These models are said to exhibit procyclical news shocks. We find that all models that exhibit procyclical news shocks in our paper have two commonalities. There are mechanisms to ensure that: (I) consumption does not crowd out investment, or vice versa; (II) the benefit of forgoing leisure in response to news shocks outweighs the cost. Among the models we consider, we believe, one model holds the greatest potential for explaining procyclical news shocks. Its critical assumption is that news of the future technology also illuminates the nature of this technology. This illumination in turn permits economic actors to invest in capital that is forward-compatible, i.e. adapted to the new technology. On the technical side, our paper reintroduces the Laplace transform as a tool for studying dynamic economies analytically. Using Laplace transforms we are able to study and prove results about the full dynamics of the model in response to news shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • William D. Dupor & M. Saif Mehkari, 2013. "The analytics of technology news shocks," Working Papers 2013-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2015. "Inter-sectoral Labor Immobility, Sectoral Co-movement, and News Shocks," Discussion papers e-15-011, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    3. repec:eee:dyncon:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:94-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2018. "What can we learn about news shocks from the late 1990s and early 2000s boom-bust period?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 94-105.
    5. Christopher M. Gunn, 2014. "Overaccumulation, Interest, and Prices," Carleton Economic Papers 14-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles ; Economic growth ; Technology;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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