IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tse/wpaper/22242.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling News-Driven International Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Beaudry, Paul
  • Dupaigne, Martial
  • Portier, Franck

Abstract

This paper reexamines the question of how to explain business cycle co-movements within and between countries. First, we present two simple theoretically flexible price models to illustrate how and why news shocks can generate robust positive co-movements in economic activity across countries. We also discuss under what conditions the multi-sector version of the model generates appropriate business cycle patterns within countries. Second, we develop a quantitative two-country multi-sector model that is capable of replicating many international business cycle facts. The model is a two-country extension of the closed economy model of Beaudry and Portier [2004], in which there are limited possibilities to reallocate factors between investment and consumption good sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Beaudry, Paul & Dupaigne, Martial & Portier, Franck, 2009. "Modeling News-Driven International Business Cycles," TSE Working Papers 09-117, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:22242
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/medias/doc/wp/macro/wp_macro_117_2009.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
    3. Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2004. "International business cycles: What are the facts?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 257-276, March.
    4. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    5. Beaudry, Paul & Collard, Fabrice & Portier, Franck, 2011. "Gold rush fever in business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 84-97, March.
    6. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1699-1711, December.
    7. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
    8. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier & Paul Beaudry, 2007. "The International Propagation of News Shocks," 2007 Meeting Papers 251, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2009. "Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 309-327, April.
    11. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
    12. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2010. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    14. David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The "news view" of economic fluctuations: Evidence from aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-652, December.
    16. Haertel, Thomas & Lucke, Bernd, 2007. "New Evidence on News-Driven Business Cycles," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-27, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    17. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo & Ilut, Cosmin, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 955, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. Tony Hall & Jan Jacobs & Adrian Pagan, "undated". "Macro-Econometric System Modelling @75," NCER Working Paper Series 95, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    3. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2013. "News Shocks, Real Exchange Rates and International Co-Movements," BCL working papers 83, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    4. Blake, Andrew P., 2012. "Equally shocking news," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 866-869.
    5. Gunn, Christopher M. & Johri, Alok, 2018. "Financial News, Banks, And Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 173-198, March.
    6. Dupor, Bill & Mehkari, M. Saif, 2014. "The analytics of technology news shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 392-427.
    7. Meller, Barbara & Metiu, Norbert, 2015. "The synchronization of European credit cycles," Discussion Papers 20/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2015. "Inter-sectoral Labor Immobility, Sectoral Co-movement, and News Shocks," Discussion papers e-15-011, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    9. Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2015. "TFP, News, and 'Sentiments': The International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 640, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    10. Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2016. "Real exchange rates and international co-movement: news-shocks and non-tradable goods with complete markets," Working Paper Series 1946, European Central Bank.
    11. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2013. "Fear of Sovereign Default, Banks, and Expectations-driven Business Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-08, McMaster University.
    12. repec:bbz:fcpbbr:v:11:y:2014:i:4:p:53-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Giacomo De Giorgi & Luca Gambetti, 2017. "Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Distribution of Consumption," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 19-41, January.
    14. Filippo di Mauro & Filippo di Mauro, Fabio Fornari, 2014. "Going granular: The importance of firm-level equity information in anticipating economic activity," EcoMod2014 6809, EcoMod.
    15. Kamber, Güneş & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2017. "News-driven business cycles in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 77-89.
    16. Manuel Portugal Ferreira & Nuno Rosa Reis & Fernando Ribeiro Serra & Benny Kramer Costa, 2013. "Understanding the footprint of the RBV in International Business studies: The last twenty years of research," Working Papers 96, globADVANTAGE, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria.
    17. Alok Johri & Terry Yip, 2017. "Financial Shocks,Supply-chain Relationships and the Great Trade Collapse," Department of Economics Working Papers 2017-11, McMaster University.
    18. Daniele Siena, 2017. "What's News in International Business Cycles," 2017 Meeting Papers 1206, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Manuel Portugal Ferreira & Fernando A. Ribeiro Serra & Benny Kramer Costa, 2011. "The RBV in International Business Studies: A bibliometric study of Barney?s (1991) contribution to the field," Working Papers 82, globADVANTAGE, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria.
    20. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; expectations; international fluctuations;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:22242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/tsetofr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.