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On the non-optimality of information: an analysis of the welfare effects of anticipated shocks in the New Keynesian model

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  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner
  • Winkler, Roland C.

Abstract

This paper compares the welfare effects of anticipated and unanticipated cost-push shocks within the canonical New Keynesian model with optimal monetary policy. We find that, for empirically plausible degrees of nominal rigidity, the anticipation of a future cost-push shock leads to a higher welfare loss than an unanticipated shock. A welfare gain from the anticipation of a future cost shock may only occur if prices are sufficiently flexible. We show analytically that this result holds although unanticipated shocks lead to higher negative impact effects on welfare than anticipated shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2009. "On the non-optimality of information: an analysis of the welfare effects of anticipated shocks in the New Keynesian model," Kiel Working Papers 1497, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1497
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2009. "Rational expectations models with anticipated shocks and optimal policy: a general solution method and a new Keynesian example," Economics Working Papers 2009-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Langer, Viktoria C.E., 2016. "News shocks, nonseparable preferences, and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 237-246.
    3. Kapinos, Pavel, 2011. "Forward-looking monetary policy and anticipated shocks to inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 620-633.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anticipated Shocks; Optimal Monetary Policy; Sticky Prices; Welfare Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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