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Rational expectations models with anticipated shocks and optimal policy: a general solution method and a New Keynesian example

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  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner
  • Winkler, Roland C.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to show how to solve linear dynamic rational expectations models with anticipated shocks by using the generalized Schur decomposition method. Furthermore, we determine the optimal unrestricted and restricted policy responses to anticipated shocks. We demonstrate our solution method by means of a micro-founded hybrid New Keynesian model and show that anticipated cost-push shocks entail higher welfare losses than unanticipated shocks of equal size.

Suggested Citation

  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2009. "Rational expectations models with anticipated shocks and optimal policy: a general solution method and a New Keynesian example," Kiel Working Papers 1507, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1507
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
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    3. Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis, 2009. "Monetary Persistence, Imperfect Competition, And Staggering Complementarities," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 81-106, February.
    4. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    6. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2008. "On the Non-Optimality of Information: An Analysis of the Welfare Effects of Anticipated Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," Economics Working Papers 2008-21, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    7. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, February.
    8. Currie,David & Levine,Paul, 2009. "Rules, Reputation and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521104609.
    9. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. Igor Vetlov & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & Laure Frey & Tibor Hlédik & Zoltán Jakab & Niki Papadopoulou & Lukas Reiss & Martin Schneider, 2010. "The Implementation of Scenarios Using DSGE Models," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 8, Bank of Lithuania.
    3. Samuel Wills, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Responses to Oil Discoveries," Discussion Papers 1408, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2014.
    4. Samuel Wills, 2014. "Optimal Monetary Responses to Oil Discoveries," CAMA Working Papers 2014-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Sacht, Stephen, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy responses and welfare analysis within the highfrequency New-Keynesian framework," Economics Working Papers 2014-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    6. Offick, Sven & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2015. "Volatility effects of news shocks in (B)RE models with optimal monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 2015-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    7. Offick, Sven & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Volatility effects of news shocks in New Keynesian models with optimal monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 78-82.
    8. Kapinos, Pavel, 2011. "Forward-looking monetary policy and anticipated shocks to inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 620-633.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anticipated Shocks; Optimal Monetary Policy; Rational Expectations; Generalized Schur Decomposition; Welfare Effects;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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