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Rational Expectations Models with Anticipated Shocks and Optimal Policy

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  • Winkler, Roland
  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner

Abstract

This paper investigates optimal policy in the presence of anticipated (or news) shocks. We determine the optimal unrestricted and restricted policy response in a general rational expectations model and show that, if shocks are news shocks, the optimal unrestricted control rule under commitment contains a forward-looking element. As an example, we lay out a micro-founded hybrid New Keynesian model and show i) that anticipated cost-push shocks entail higher welfare losses than unanticipated shocks of equal size and ii) that the inclusion of forward-looking elements enhances distinctly the performance of simple optimized interest rate rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkler, Roland & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2012. "Rational Expectations Models with Anticipated Shocks and Optimal Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62030, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc12:62030
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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