On the (de)stabilizing effects of news shocks
This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas in any purely forward-looking model, such as the baseline New Keynesian model, anticipation amplifies volatility, we obtain ambiguous results when including a backward-looking component. In addition to these theoretical findings, we use the estimated model of Smets and Wouters (2003) to provide numerical evidence that news shocks increase the volatility of key macroeconomic variables in the euro area when compared to unanticipated shocks.
|Date of creation:||2009|
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- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006.
"Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations,"
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14215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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"Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2009. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Working Papers 14950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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"An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area,"
Working Paper Research
35, National Bank of Belgium.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
- Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "On the dynamic implications of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 96-98, February.
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