On the (de)stabilizing effects of news shocks
This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas in any purely forward-looking model, such as the baseline New Keynesian model, anticipation amplifies volatility, we obtain ambiguous results when including a backward-looking component. In addition to these theoretical findings, we use the estimated model of Smets and Wouters (2003) to provide numerical evidence that news shocks increase the volatility of key macroeconomic variables in the euro area when compared to unanticipated shocks.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
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- Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2009.
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- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004.
"Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations,"
in: Enhancing Productivity (NBER-CEPR-TCER-Keio conference)
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," IDEI Working Papers 158, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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7201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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