Expectation Formation and Monetary DSGE Models: Beyond the Rational Expectations Paradigm
Empirical work in macroeconomics almost universally relies on the hypothesis of rational expectations. This paper departs from the literature by considering a variety of alternative expectations formation models. We study the econometric properties of a popular New Keynesian monetary DSGE model under different expectational assumptions: the benchmark case of rational expectations, rational expectations extended to allow for `news' about future shocks, near-rational expectations and learning, and observed subjective expectations from surveys. The results show that the econometric evaluation of the model is extremely sensitive to how expectations are modeled. The posterior distributions for the structural parameters significantly shift when the assumption of rational expectations is modified. Estimates of the structural disturbances under different expectation processes are often dissimilar. The modeling of expectations has important effects on the ability of the model to fit macroeconomic time series. The model achieves its worse fit under rational expectations. The introduction of news improves fit. The best-fitting specifications, however, are those that assume learning. Expectations also have large effects on forecasting. Survey expectations, news, and learning all work to improve the model's one-step-ahead forecasting accuracy. Rational expectations, however, dominate over longer horizons, such as one-year ahead or beyond.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Irvine, CA 92697-3125|
Phone: (949) 824-5788
Web page: http://www.economics.uci.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Katharine S. Neiss and Edward Nelson, 2001.
"The Real Interest Rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2001
145, Society for Computational Economics.
- Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 239-262, April.
- Neiss, Katharine & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Real Interest rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," CEPR Discussion Papers 2848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Katharine S. Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The real interest rate gap as an inflation indicator," Bank of England working papers 130, Bank of England.
- Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2012.
"Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 26-46.
- Preston, Bruce, 2005.
"Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter,"
830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
- Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2010.
"Endogenous Persistence in an Estimated DSGE Model under Imperfect Information,"
CDMA Working Paper Series
201002, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2012. "Endogenous Persistence in an estimated DSGE Model Under Imperfect Information," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1287-1312, December.
- Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2010. "Endogenous Persistence in an Estimated DSGE Model under Imperfect Information," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0310, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
- Christoffel, Kai & Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2009.
"What’s News in Business Cycles,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:111212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jennifer dos Santos)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.