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Observed Expectations, News Shocks, and the Business Cycle

  • Fabio Milani

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

  • Ashish Rajrhandari

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

This paper exploits information from the term structure of survey expectations to identify news shocks in a a DSGE model with rational expectations. We estimate a structural business-cycle model with price and wage stickiness. We allow for both unanticipated and anticipated components ("news") in each structural disturbance: neutral and investment-specific technology shocks, government spending shocks, risk premium, price and wage markup shocks, and monetary policy shocks. We show that the estimation of a standard DSGE model with realized data obfuscates the identification of news shocks and yields weakly or non-identified parameters pertaining to such shocks. The identification of news shocks greatly improves when we re-estimate the model using data on observed expectations regarding future output, consumption, investment, government spending, inflation, and interest rates - at horizons ranging from one-period to five-periods ahead. The news series thus obtained largely differ from their counterparts that are estimated using only data on realized variables. Moreover, the results suggest that the identified news shocks explain a sizable portion of aggregate fluctuations. News about investment-specific technology and risk premium shocks play the largest role, followed by news about labor supply (wage markup) and monetary policy.

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File URL: http://www.economics.uci.edu/files/docs/workingpapers/2012-13/milani-05.pdf
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Paper provided by University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 121305.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:121305
Contact details of provider: Postal: Irvine, CA 92697-3125
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Web page: http://www.economics.uci.edu/

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  1. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 535, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  3. Barattieri, Alessandro & Basu, Susanto & Gottschalk, Peter T., 2010. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 5039, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Karel Mertens & MortenO. Ravn, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 393-413, 05.
  5. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2010. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Stefan Avdjiev, . "News Driven Business Cycles and Data on Asset Prices in Estimated DSGE Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Fabio Milani & Ashish Rajbhandari, 2012. "Expectation Formation and Monetary DSGE Models: Beyond the Rational Expectations Paradigm," Working Papers 111212, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  8. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2008. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002352, David K. Levine.
  9. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," Caepr Working Papers 2008-013, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  10. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
  11. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
  12. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012. "Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data," CAMA Working Papers 2012-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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