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Perceived uncertainty shocks, excess optimism-pessimism, and learning in the business cycle

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  • Chatterjee, Pratiti
  • Milani, Fabio

Abstract

What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle?

Suggested Citation

  • Chatterjee, Pratiti & Milani, Fabio, 2020. "Perceived uncertainty shocks, excess optimism-pessimism, and learning in the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 342-360.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:179:y:2020:i:c:p:342-360
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.09.007
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    11. Milani, Fabio & Rajbhandari, Ashish, 2020. "Observed expectations, news shocks, and the business cycle," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 95-118.
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    13. Fabio Milani, 2011. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 379-401, May.
    14. Cole, Stephen J. & Milani, Fabio, 2019. "The Misspecification Of Expectations In New Keynesian Models: A Dsge-Var Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 974-1007, April.
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    16. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2014. "Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia," Working Paper Series WP-2014-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. George W. Evans, 2001. "Expectations in Macroeconomics. Adaptive versus Eductive Learning," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(3), pages 573-582.
    18. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Sentiment and the U.S. business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 289-311.
    19. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
    20. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
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    22. McCallum, Bennett T., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice: two critical points : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 215-220, December.
    23. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695.
    24. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    25. William A. Branch & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2010. "Finite Horizon Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-15, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    26. William A. Branch, 2014. "Nowcasting and the Taylor Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 1035-1055, August.
    27. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2017. "Fiscal consolidations and finite planning horizons," BERG Working Paper Series 130, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2023. "The confidence channel of U.S. financial uncertainty: Evidence from industry-level data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Gaies, Brahim & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Ayadi, Rim & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2022. "Exploring the causal links between investor sentiment and financial instability: A dynamic macro-financial analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 290-303.
    3. An, Zidong & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Cole, Stephen J. & Milani, Fabio, 2021. "Heterogeneity in individual expectations, sentiment, and constant-gain learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 627-650.
    5. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2023. "Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10646, CESifo.
    6. Thierry U. Kame Babilla, 2024. "Bank‐lending channel of monetary policy transmission in WAEMU: An estimated DSGE model approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1277-1300, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty shocks; Sentiment; Animal spirits; Learning; Behavioral New Keynesian model; Sources of business cycle fluctuations; Observed survey expectations; Optimism and pessimism in business cycles; Probability density forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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