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What are uncertainty shocks?

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  • Kozeniauskas, Nicholas
  • Orlik, Anna
  • Veldkamp, Laura

Abstract

Many modern business cycle models use uncertainty shocks to generate aggregate fluctuations. However, uncertainty is measured in a variety of ways. Our analysis shows that the measures are not the same, either statistically or conceptually, raising the question of whether fluctuations in them are actually generated by the same phenomenon. We propose a mechanism that generates realistic micro dispersion (cross-sectional variance of firm-level outcomes), higher-order uncertainty (disagreement) and macro uncertainty (uncertainty about macro outcomes) from changes in macro volatility. If we want to consider “uncertainty shocks” as a unified phenomenon, these results show what such a shock might actually entail.

Suggested Citation

  • Kozeniauskas, Nicholas & Orlik, Anna & Veldkamp, Laura, 2018. "What are uncertainty shocks?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-15.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:100:y:2018:i:c:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.06.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David Altig & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Brent H. Meyer & Nicholas Parker, 2019. "Surveying Business Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 25956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin Seneca, 2020. "Risk Shocks and Monetary Policy in the New Normal," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 185-232, December.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Kim, Jin Yeub & Shim, Myungkyu, 2019. "Does higher firm profit dispersion reflect greater micro uncertainty?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 35-38.
    5. Suh, Hyunduk & Yang, Jin Young, 2021. "Global uncertainty and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty: Different implications for firm investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Ravi Bansal & Mariano Max Croce & Wenxi Liao & Samuel Rosen, 2019. "Uncertainty-Induced Reallocations and Growth," NBER Working Papers 26248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mario Canales & Bernabe Lopez-Martin, 2021. "Uncertainty, Risk, and Price-Setting: Evidence from CPI Microdata," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 908, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Sinha, Rajesh Kumar, 2021. "Macro disagreement and analyst forecast properties," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1).
    9. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Apr 2020.
    10. Stefan Lautenbacher & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Wie schwer fällt es Manager*innen, den Verlauf zukünftiger Geschäfte vorherzusagen? Das neue Maß der ifo Geschäftsunsicherheit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), pages 32-35, December.
    11. Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "»Lockdown light« lässt Kurzarbeit im November wieder etwas ansteigen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), December.
    12. Vania Esady, 2019. "Real and Nominal Effects of Monetary Shocks under Time-Varying Disagreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7956, CESifo.
    13. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2021. "The high frequency impact of economic policy narratives on stock market uncertainty," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2021, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty shocks; Disaster risk; Aggregate fluctuations; Surveys of expectations; Firm dispersion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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