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Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations

  • Jess Benhabib
  • Pengfei Wang
  • Yi Wen

We formalize the Keynesian insight that aggregate demand driven by sentiments can generate output fluctuations under rational expectations. When production decisions must be made under imperfect information about demand, optimal decisions based on sentiments can generate stochastic self-fulfilling rational expectations equilibria in standard economies without persistent informational frictions, externalities, non-convexities or strategic complementarities in production. The models we consider are deliberately simple, but could serve as benchmarks for more complicated equilibrium models with additional features.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18413.

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Date of creation: Sep 2012
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Publication status: published as Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2015. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 549-585, 03.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18413
Note: EFG
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  1. Ivan Werning & George-Marios Angeletos, 2005. "Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity and Volatility," 2005 Meeting Papers 284, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Manuel Amador & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2008. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 14255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
  4. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2006. "Signaling in a Global Game: Coordination and Policy Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 452-484, June.
  5. Aleh Tsyvinski & Arijit Mukherji & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1769-1787, December.
  6. Stein, Noah D. & Parrilo, Pablo A. & Ozdaglar, Asuman, 2011. "Correlated equilibria in continuous games: Characterization and computation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 436-455, March.
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