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“Large” vs. “small” players: A closer look at the dynamics of speculative attacks

  • Geir H. Bjønnes

    (Norwegian School of Management(BI))

  • Steinar Holden

    (University of Oslo and Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Dagfinn Rime

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Haakon O.Aa. Solheim

    (Ministry of Trade and Industry)

What is the role of “large players” like hedge funds and other highly leveraged institutions in speculative attacks? In recent theoretical work, large players may induce an attack by an early move, providing information to smaller agents. In contrast, many observers argue that large players are in the rear. We propose a model that allows both the large player to move early in order to induce speculation by small players, or wait so as to benefit from a high interest rate prior to the attack. Using data on net positions of “large” (foreigners) and “small” (locals) players,we find that large players moved last in three attacks on the Norwegian krone (NOK) during the1990s: The ERM-crisis of 1992, the NOK-pressure in 1997, and after the Russian moratorium in1998. In 1998 there was a contemporaneous attack on the Swedish krona (SEK) in which large players moved early. Interest rates did not increase in Sweden so there was little to gain by a delayed attack.

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Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2005/13.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 21 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2005_13
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