IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/sifrwp/0052.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

High-Speed Natural Selection in Financial Markets with Large State Spaces

Author

Listed:
  • Fedyk, Yuriy

    (Olin School of Business)

  • Walden, Johan

    () (Haas School of Business)

Abstract

Recent research has suggested that natural selection in financial markets may be a very slow process, taking hundreds of years. We show in a general equilibrium model that it may be much faster in markets with large state spaces. In many cases, the time it takes to wipe out irrational investors is inversely proportional to the number of stocks in the market, i.e., if it takes about 500 years with one stock, it takes about one year with 500 stocks. Thus, theoretically, natural selection can be very efficient even when there is high market uncertainty. The speed of the natural selection process is a known function of irrational investors' sentiment and of the real characteristics of the stock market. According to a calibration to U.S. stock data, it takes about fifty years for an irrational investor to be wiped out. This is in line with studies of individual investor underperformance.

Suggested Citation

  • Fedyk, Yuriy & Walden, Johan, 2007. "High-Speed Natural Selection in Financial Markets with Large State Spaces," SIFR Research Report Series 52, Institute for Financial Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sifr.org/PDFs/sifr-wp52.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Massa, Massimo & Simonov, Andrei, 2003. "Reputation and interdealer trading: a microstructure analysis of the Treasury Bond market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 99-141, April.
    2. Steven N. Kaplan & Per Strömberg, 2004. "Characteristics, Contracts, and Actions: Evidence from Venture Capitalist Analyses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2177-2210, October.
    3. Geir H. Bjønnes & Steinar Holden & Dagfinn Rime & Haakon O.Aa. Solheim, 2005. "“Large” vs. “small” players: A closer look at the dynamics of speculative attacks," Working Paper 2005/13, Norges Bank.
    4. Bortolotti, Bernardo & de Jong, Frank & Nicodano, Giovanna & Schindele, Ibolya, 2007. "Privatization and stock market liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 297-316, February.
    5. Ulf Axelson & Per Strömberg & Michael S. Weisbach, 2009. "Why Are Buyouts Levered? The Financial Structure of Private Equity Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1549-1582, August.
    6. Donald Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip Strahan, 2003. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 9704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Massimo Massa & Andrei Simonov, 2006. "Hedging, Familiarity and Portfolio Choice," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 633-685.
    8. Giannetti, Mariassunta & Yu, Xiaoyun, 2007. "Favoritism or Markets in Capital Allocation?," SIFR Research Report Series 50, Institute for Financial Research.
    9. Sundaram, Rangarajan K. & Yermack, David, 2006. "Pay Me Later: Inside Debt and Its Role in Managerial Compensation," SIFR Research Report Series 43, Institute for Financial Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kogan, Leonid & Ross, Stephen A. & Wang, Jiang & Westerfield, Mark M., 2017. "Market selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 209-236.
    2. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1935-1950, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Market selection hypothesis; Natural selection;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anki Helmer). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sifrrse.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.