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Financial linkages and sectoral business cycle synchronisation: Evidence from Europe

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  • Böhm, Hannes
  • Schaumburg, Julia
  • Tonzer, Lena

Abstract

We analyse whether financial integration between countries leads to converging or diverging business cycles using a dynamic spatial model. Our model allows for contemporaneous spillovers of shocks to GDP growth between countries that are financially integrated and delivers a scalar measure of the spillover intensity at each point in time. For a financial network of ten European countries from 1996-2017, we find that the spillover effects are positive on average but much larger during periods of financial stress, pointing towards stronger business cycle synchronisation. Dismantling GDP growth into value added growth of ten major industries, we observe that some sectors are strongly affected by positive spillovers (wholesale & retail trade, industrial production), others only to a weaker degree (agriculture, construction, finance), while more nationally influenced industries show no evidence for significant spillover effects (public administration, arts & entertainment, real estate).

Suggested Citation

  • Böhm, Hannes & Schaumburg, Julia & Tonzer, Lena, 2020. "Financial linkages and sectoral business cycle synchronisation: Evidence from Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:22020
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    1. Jingjing Lyu & Bernd Süssmuth, 2024. "Global Linkages across Sectors and Frequency Bands: A Band Spectral Panel Regression Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10970, CESifo.
    2. Schmidt, Kirsten & Tonzer, Lena, 2024. "Banks' foreign homes," Discussion Papers 46/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Emanuele De Meo & Giacomo Tizzanini, 2021. "GDP‐network CoVaR: A tool for assessing growth‐at‐risk," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(2), July.
    4. Dieter Wang & Julia Schaumburg, 2020. "Smooth marginalized particle filters for dynamic network effect models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-023/III, Tinbergen Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial integration; business cycle synchronisation; industry dynamics; spatial model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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