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Decoding synchronization of cycles between BRICS and the U.S.: Patterns and drivers

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  • Dua, Pami
  • Tuteja, Divya

Abstract

The paper examines patterns and drivers of synchronization between BRICS and the U.S. It includes common global factors which have not been explored much in the extant literature. To measure economic activity, the study utilizes growth rates of the Coincident Index from January 1995 till December 2022 sourced from Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York and employs the bias-corrected method of moments estimator for dynamic panel models. Results show that U.S. recessions of 2001, 2008-09 and 2020 resulted in higher synchronization across U.S. and BRICS cycles. We construct novel measures for synchronization, trade integration and financial integration and show that trade and financial channels significantly explain the synchronization. Finally, common global factors which amplify synchronization are identified. The findings imply that EME policymakers must undertake proactive and coordinated measures to shield their economies from a recession during times of intense financial stress, heightened policy uncertainty, and significant oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Dua, Pami & Tuteja, Divya, 2026. "Decoding synchronization of cycles between BRICS and the U.S.: Patterns and drivers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:155:y:2026:i:c:s0264999325003864
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107391
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    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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