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Vertical Specialization and International Business Cycle Synchronization

  • Costas Arkolakis
  • Ananth Ramanarayanan

We explore the impact of vertical specialization-trade in goods across multiple stages of production-on the relationship between trade and business cycle synchronization across countries. We develop an international business cycle model in which the degree of vertical specialization varies with trade barriers. With perfect competition, we show analytically that fluctuations in measured total factor productivity are not linked across countries through trade. In numerical simulations, we find little dependence of business cycle synchronization on trade intensity. An extension of the model to allow for imperfect competition has the potential to resolve these shortcomings. Copyright The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics" 2009 .

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2009.01580.x
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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 111 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 655-680

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:111:y:2009:i:4:p:655-680
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  1. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
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  9. Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Can vertical specialization explain the growth of world trade?," Staff Reports 96, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  12. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 2003. "Business Cycles with Staggered Prices and International Trade in Intermediate Inputs," Emory Economics 0308, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
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  19. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2001. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intraindustry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," LICOS Discussion Papers 10601, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
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  21. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
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